A gravity model, frequently used to explain trade patterns, is used to explain stock market correlations. The main result of the trade literature is that geography matters for goods markets. Physical location and trading costs should be less of an issue in asset markets. However we find that geographical variables still matter when examining equity market linkages. In particular, the number of ...

In this paper, we present a model that simulates the behaviour of a heterogenous collection of financial traders on a market. Each trader is modelled as an autonomous, interactive agent and the agregation of their behavior results in market behaviour. 1 We specifically look at the role of information arriving at the market and the influence of heterogeneity on market dynamics. The main conclusi...

This paper examines the Brady bond market of two largest Latin American economies, Mexico and Brazil. Results indicate that stripped yield of each market in the very near future is determined primarily by the past yields in the respective markets. However, over a longer-term horizon the interrelationships between the bond markets and the stock markets of the two countries become important. Futu...

This paper investigates the presence of bull and bear market states in stock price dynamics. A new definition of bull and bear market states based on sequences of stopping times tracing local peaks and troughs in stock prices is proposed. Duration dependence in stock prices is investigated through posterior mode estimates of the hazard function in bull and bear markets. We find that the longer ...

In the absence of market frictions, the cost of carry model of stock index futures pricing predicts that returns on the underlying stock index and the associated stock index futures contract will be perfectly contemporaneously correlated. Evidence suggests, however, that this prediction is violated with clear evidence that the stock index futures market leads the stock market. We argue that tra...

Is the concept of stock market speculations, related with the news in the news papers? This study mainly focus on the correlation between economy news from one of the highest circulation rate news paper in Turkey and Istanbul stock market closing values. Data set is collected from the web page of news paper in natural language and text mining technique, term frequency – inverse document frequen...

This paper investigates the relative pricing performance between constant volatility and stochastic volatility pricing models, based on a comprehensive sample of options on four currencies, including the British pound, Deutsche mark, Japanese yen and Swiss franc, traded frequently in the Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX) from 1994 to 2001. The results show that the model of Heston (1993) outpe...

Around the world, trading in the stock market has gained huge attractiveness as a means through which, one can obtain vast profits. Attempting to profitably and precisely predict the financial market has long engrossed the interests and attention of bankers, economists and scientists alike. Stock market prediction is the act of trying, to determine the future value of a company’s stock or other...

In this paper, we have proposed artificial neural network for the prediction of Saudi stock market. The proposed predictions model, with its high degree of accuracy, could be used as investment advisor for the investors and traders in the Saudi stock market. The proposed model is based mainly on Saudi Stock market historical data covering a large span of time. Achieving reasonable accuracy rate...

One of the most prominent features of the U.S. stock market is the close connection between aggregate stock market volatility and the development of the business cycle. Figure 1 depicts the statistical relation between stock market volatility and the industrial production growth rate over the last sixty years, which shows that stock volatility is largely countercyclical, being larger in bad tim...