This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly we...

This paper summarises the findings of Eurosystem’s Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one 13 work streams conducting analysis that fed into ECB’s monetary policy strategy review. The EGIE tasked with (i) reviewing nature and behaviour inflation expectations, a focus degree anchoring, (ii) exploring role measures expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is h...

I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output – the output gap – satisfies Okun’s law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool...

We examine the predictive relationship between various measures of inflation expectations and future inflation. find that professional economists businesses have tended to provide more accurate predictions than households financial market participants. However, forecasts coming from a relatively simple popular benchmark forecasting model historically been roughly as economists.