The h-index has been shown to have predictive power. Here I report results of an empirical study showing that the increase of the h-index with time often depends for a long time on citations to rather old publications. This inert behavior of the h-index means that it is difficult to use it as a measure for predicting future scientific output. 1. Introduction The Hirsch index or h-index of a res...

© 2005, International Society for Scientometrics and Informetrics (ISSI) © 2005-2006, International Society for Scientometrics and Informetrics (ISSI) 4 (HIRSCH, 2005) introduced an index h defined as the number of papers of certain author with citation number of at least h, and calculated the values of the h-index of Nobel-winners and of other top physicists and biologists. Typical h-values in...