In this paper, we estimate GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR-GARCH models assuming normal and heavy-tailed distribution (i.e., GED). Results suggest that when the heavy-tailed distribution is considered, the persistence has found to be reduced in all the cases. Findings also reveal that positive shocks are more common than the negative shocks in this market.

Users of agricultural markets frequently need to establish accurate representations of expected future volatility. The fact that range-based volatility estimators are highly efficient has been acknowledged in the literature. However, it is not clear whether using range-based data leads to better risk management decisions. This paper compares the performance of GARCH models, range-based GARCH mo...

This paper introduces a conditional extreme value volatility estimator (EVT) based on highfrequency returns. The relative performance of the EVT is compared with the discrete-time GARCH and implied volatility models for 1-day and 20-day-ahead forecasts of realized volatility. This is also a first attempt towards detecting any time-series variation in extreme value distributions using high-frequ...

agricultural activities are risky activities. in these activities, various natural, social and economic risks have created fragile and vulnerable situation for producers. price risk in agricultural products has caused financial problems for many producers and farmers. to deal with these price risks and price fluctuations, there are varieties of tools. this paper focused on futures markets instr...

It is well known that as the time interval between two consecutive observations shrinks to zero, a properly constructed GARCH model will weakly converge to a bivariate diffusion. Naturally the European option price under the GARCH model will also converge to its bivariate diffusion counterpart. This paper investigates the convergence speed of the GARCH option price. We show that the European op...

This paper shows that, even if volatility is accurately predicted by correctly specified GARCH models, however such predictions are not very useful for traders when the conditional volatility does not vary "enough" over time, being therefore quite close to the unconditional one. It is shown that a low R in the Mincer-Zarnowitz regression implies flat (although correctly predicted) volatility, a...