The National Weather Service (NWS) recently began providing static inundation maps at selected river forecast points through the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) web pages. Positive feedback has motivated efforts to expand the forecast mapping program. In order to expand this mapping program efficiently and effectively, we need a more objective basis for determining where static fo...

This paper establishes properties of optimal forecasts under general loss functions, extending existing results obtained under speci…c functional forms and data generating processes. We propose a new method that changes the probability measure under which the well-known properties of optimal forecasts under mean squared error loss can be recovered. We illustrate the proposed methods through an ...

The domain of multi level forecast combination is a challenging new domain containing a large potential for forecast improvements. This thesis presents a theoretical and experimental analysis of different types of forecast diversification on forecast error covariances and resulting combined forecast quality. Three types of diversification are used: (a) diversification concerning the level of le...

the aim of this paper is to present the prediction model of the transport energy demand in iran. markov chain grey model (mcgm) is proposed to forecast the transport energy demand of iran. then it is compared with grey model (gm) and regression model. moreover, the mcgm forecasting model is used to forecast the annual gasoline demand of iran up to the year 1400. the aim of this paper is to pres...

Coal bed methane (CBM) reservoir production is controlled by a large set of parameters: geology, tectonics, reservoir, completion and operation. Its simulation process is complicated, relative information is difficult to be obtained, so it is necessary to analyze accurately coal bed gas potential production capacity by adopting other mathematics methods in case of incomplete information. Regard...