The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the collective risk model, where the total claim size in a portfolio is the sum of a random number of claims. If the tail of the claim number is heavier than the ...

Several dimensions of early identification are discussed, including the relationship between early identification and prevention. A preventive component is described for the various forms of early identification—child find, screening, assessment, and program planning. Also discussed are recently published guidelines for screening and assessment and the assumptions on which these guidelines are ...

Insurers have been concerned about surrenders for a long time especially in Saving business, where huge sums are at stake. The emergence of the European directive Solvency II, which promotes the development of internal risk models (among which a complete unit is dedicated to surrender risk management), strengthens the necessity to deeply study and understand this risk. In this paper we investig...

This paper reports the results of an empirical comparison of various types of competing risk models in predicting the timing and duration of activities. In particular, three types of models are compared: a noncompeting risk model, an unconditional competing risk model, and a conditional competing risk model. The models are applied to an activity diary, collected in the Netherlands. The results ...

We examine the correlation in credit risk using credit default swap (CDS) data. We find that the observable risk factors at the firm, industry, and market levels and the macroeconomic variables cannot fully explain the correlation in CDS spread changes, leaving at least 30 percent of the correlation unaccounted for. This finding suggests that contagion is not only statistically but also economi...

The Flight Operations Risk Assessment System (FORAS) is a risk modeling methodology which represents risk factors and their interrelationships as a fuzzy expert system. A FORAS risk model provides a quantitative relative risk index representing an estimate of the cumulative effects of potential hazards on a single flight operation. FORAS systematizes the process of eliciting human expertise, pr...

This paper investigates the probability of ruin within finite horizon for a discrete time risk model, in which the reserve of an insurance business is currently invested in a risky asset. Under assumption that the risks are heavy tailed, some precise estimates for the finite time ruin probability are derived, which confirm a folklore that the ruin probability is mainly determined by whichever o...

Precision medicine requires the precision disease risk prediction models. In literature, there have been a lot wellestablished (inter-)national risk models, but when applying them into the local population, the prediction performance becomes unsatisfactory. To address the localization issue, this paper exploits the way to develop knowledge-enhanced localized risk models. On the one hand, we tun...