The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The ‘puzzles’ in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for (a) the low volatility of the forward discount (b) the higher volatility of expected forward speculative profit (c) the even higher volatility...

 The foreign exchange market (FX market) accounts for 40% of the total volume of the world’s e-commerce by its own. Based on statistics, sometimes up to 90 per cent of the traders lose their total capital in this market just within six months to one year and leave this market. The probability of loss in the FX market can be estimated by probability theory. The present paper intends to demonst...

Volatility smiles arise in currency option markets when empirical exchange rate returns distributions exhibit leptokurtosis. This feature of empirical distributions is symptomatic of turbulent periods when exchange rate movements are in excess of movements based on the assumption of normality. In contrast, during periods of tranquility, movements in exchange rates are relatively small, resultin...

Abstract This paper analyses the unbiasedness hypothesis between spot and forward volatility, using both actual continuous path of realised focusing on long-memory properties. For this purpose, we use daily volatility with jumps for USD/EUR exchange rate negotiated in FX market employ fractional integration cointegration techniques. Both series have long-range dependence, so does error correcti...

I n this paper, the evaluation of the real exchange rate transfer and the asymmetric transmission of real exchange rate fluctuations to the export prices of food products for the country during the period (2001-2015) was studied using two approaches of PMG and GMM systems. The TGARCH method was used to calculate the real exchange rate fluctuation index and the Markov Switching method was u...