The paper develops a method for producing current quarter forecasts of gross domestic product growth with a (possibly large) range of available within-the-quarter monthly observations of economic indicators, such as employment and industrial production, and financial indicators, such as stock prices and interest rates. In light of existing evidence of time variation in the variances of shocks t...

In this paper, we examine closed-loop operation of an HVAC central plant to demonstrate that closed-loop movinghorizon scheduling provides robustness to inaccurate forecasts, and that economic performance is not seriously impaired by shortened prediction horizons or inaccurate forecasts when feedback is employed. Using a general mixedinteger linear programming formulation for the scheduling pro...

Forecasts of 96 shocks in the solar wind at the L1 point made by the HAF kinematic solar wind model made between 5 February and 31 December 2001 are compared to algorithmically determined shocks from real-time data from the SWEPAM and MAG instruments aboard the ACE spacecraft. Traditional measures of forecast skill used by the meteorological community are applied to these forecasts and observat...

This paper provides a methodology for combining forecasts based on several discrete choice models. This is achieved primarily by combining one-step-ahead probability forecast associated with each model. The paper applies well-established scoring rules for qualitative response models in the context of forecast combination. Log-scores and quadratic-scores are both used to evaluate the forecasting...

Objective: Market anomalieschange with economic conditions, stock markets, selected samples, time periods and differences between industries. Revision of past forecasts leads to forecast error. The revisions result from new information. On the other hand, some managers slowly revise their forecasts in responding to new information. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to investigate the r...