This paper shows a positive relation between analyst forecast dispersion and future aggregate stock returns, significant and robust. The innovations in forecast dispersions are negatively associated with contemporaneous aggregate returns and changes in discount rates. Decomposing forecast dispersion into “uncertainty” and “information asymmetry” components, I find that the “uncertainty” compone...

This paper develops a Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) for forecasting inventory investment in South Africa. The model is estimated using quarterly data on actual sales, production, unfilled orders, price levels and interest rates, for the period of 1978 to 2000. The out-of-sample-forecast accuracy obtained from the BVECM, over the forecasting horizon of 2001:1 to 2003:4, is compa...

This paper proposes a factor augmented autoregressive distributed lag (FADL) framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of common and idiosyncratic shocks. We first estimate the common shocks from a large panel of data with a strong factor structure. Impulse responses are then obtained from an autoregression, augmented with a distributed lag of the estimated common shocks. The approach has thr...

This paper proposes a welfare criterion for economies in which agents have heterogeneously distorted beliefs. Instead of taking a stand on whose belief is correct, our criterion asserts that an allocation is belief-neutral efficient (inefficient) if it is efficient (inefficient) under any convex combination of agents' beliefs. While this criterion gives an incomplete ranking of social allocatio...

The objective of the present study was to determine if the neurotropin receptors trkC and trkA are involved in embryonic testis development. These receptors bind neurotropin 3 and nerve growth factor, respectively. The hypothesis tested was that the absence of trkC or trkA receptors will have detrimental effects on testis development and morphology. The trkA and trkC homozygote knockout (KO) mi...

Background: Practice guidelines emphasize the use of exercise and weight reduction as the first line of management for knee osteoarthritis (OA). However, less than half of the people with mild OA participate in moderate intensity physical activity. Given that physical activities have been shown to reduce pain, improve quality of life, and have the potential to reduce the progression of joint da...

Neurogenesis in the rat primary olfactory cortex was examined with [3H]thymidine autoradiography. The experimental animals were the offspring of pregnant females given an injection of [3H]thymidine on two consecutive gestation days. Nine groups of embryos were exposed to [3H]thymidine on E13-E14, E14-E15....E21-E22, respectively. On P60, the percentage of labeled cells and the proportion of cel...

Currently, the Thailand government is promoting biofuel, especially producer of biodiesel. Starting from 2015, Ministry Energy has determined that palm oil remaining domestic consumption 14 million liters per day in 2036. Forecasting biodiesel prices are most important since price volatility affects renewable energy future. This paper presents with time series decomposition method. The source d...

The main goal of the present paper is to analyze the effects of currency collapses (a large devaluation of country’s nominal exchange rate) on real gross domestic products of six Asian countries (Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Korea, and Turkey). A yearly data is collected from the WDI of the World Bank over the period 1980-2011. The econometric model includes the real GDP growt...