We conducted a study analyzing the impact of productivity shocks on equity returns in U.S. economy from Q1 1960 to 2022 using an RBC DSGE model. Our results suggest that while initial lead higher returns, this effect fades within eight quarters. Nonetheless, such can still provide valuable signals for investors strategically allocate their investments sectors may benefit most. also found respon...

Employment Protection, Product Market Regulation and Firm Selection This paper analyzes the effect of labor and product market regulation in a dynamic stochastic equilibrium with search frictions. Modeling multiple-worker firms allows us to distinguish between the exit-and-entry (extensive) margin, and the hiring-and-firing (intensive) margin. We characterize analytically how both margins depen...

The debate in equilibrium selection appears to have culminated in the formation of two schools of thought: those who favor equilibrium selection based on rational coordination and those who favor zero-rationality adaptation. We examine four deductive selection principles and find that each fails to explain experimental data. We propose an inductive selection principle based on simple learning d...

According to the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect an exogenous increase in the terms of trade faced by a small open economy leads to an improvement in that country’s trade balance. In this paper structural vector autoregression techniques are used to investigate whether there is any systematic pattern in the responses of the trade balance to terms of trade shocks for a large number of sma...

There has been a long debate on equilibrium characterization in the negotiation model when players have different time preferences. We show that players behave quite differently under different time preferences than under common time preferences. Conventional analysis in this literature relies on the key assumption that all continuation payoffs are bounded from above by the bargaining frontier....

This paper examines the role of external shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in African countries. We construct a quantitative, stochastic, dynamic, multi-sector equilibrium model of a small open economy calibrated to represent a "typical" African economy. In our framework, external shocks consist of trade shocks, modeled as fluctuations in the prices of exported primary commodities...

We analyze the interaction between risk sharing and capital accumulation in a stochastic OLG model with production. We give a complete characterization of interim Pareto optimality. Our characterization also subsumes equilibria with a PAYG social security system. In a competitive equilibrium interim Pareto optimality is equivalent to intergenerational exchange e¢ciency, which in turn implies dy...

This paper studies competitive equilibria of a production economy with aggregate productivity shocks. There is a continuum of consumers who face borrowing constraints and individual labor endowment shocks. The dynamic economy is described in terms of sequences of aggregate distributions. The existence of competitive equilibrium is proven and a recursive characterization is established. In parti...