While a host of economic variables have been identified in the literature with the apparent in-sample ability to predict the equity premium, Goyal and Welch (2007) find that these variables fail to deliver consistent out-of-sample forecast gains relative to the historical average. In this paper, we demonstrate that despite the failure of individual predictive regression model forecasts to outpe...

Abeysinghe (Economic Letters, 1991, 36, 175-197; Journal of Econometrics, 1994, forthcoming) showed that seasonal dummies in regressions may lead to spurious inference. This paper evaluates the post-sample forecasting performance of a seasonal-dummy ARIMA model with four other models. The results, in general, do not stand in favor of the seasonal-dummy approach. JEL classification: C53

In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business cyclical indicators to be used as predictors for the industrial production in France and Germany; as far as...

p eople’s business credit program (kur) has been launched to alleviate poverty through provision of micro financing to micro entrepreneurs in indonesia this study aims to estimate the impact of kur program using cross-sectional data and propensity score matching technique (psm). the survey was conducted on 332 household entrepreneurs, consisting of 155 kur receivers and 177 non-kur receivers. r...

In this paper, I show that the variance of Fama-French factors, the variance of the momentum factor, as well as the correlation between these factors, predict an important fraction of the timeseries variation in post-1990 aggregate stock market returns. This predictability is particularly strong from one month to one year, and it dominates that afforded by the variance risk premium and other po...

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper proposes a new way of computing a coincident indic...

RNA polymerase (Pol) III is responsible for the transcription of genes encoding small RNAs, including tRNA, 5S rRNA and U6 RNA. Here, we report the electron cryomicroscopy structures of yeast Pol III at 9.9 Å resolution and its elongation complex at 16.5 Å resolution. Particle sub-classification reveals prominent EM densities for the two Pol III-specific subcomplexes, C31/C82/C34 and C37/C53, t...

I study the effects of a lack of common knowledge on nominal adjustment in a dynamic price-setting game with incomplete information. In particular, I show how the speed of price adjustments following a nominal or real shock depends on the information structure among pricesetters. The provision of public information leads to a reduction of higher-order uncertainty, and hence to more rapid price ...

Dynamic partial adjustment models of residential electricity demand account for the fact that households may not adjust electricity consumption immediately in response to changes in prices, income, and other relevant factors, because of behavioral habits or adjustment costs for the capital stock of appliances. However, forward-looking behavior is generally neglected. Expectations about future p...

Detailed data on the physiological pattern of adrenocortical activity during normal growth are lacking. An established method to determine adrenocortical glucocorticoid secretion is the measurement of 24-h excretion rates of major urinary cortisol metabolites (C21). To test the hypothesis that the frequently reported higher cortisol secretion in men than in women develops during puberty, we exa...