I study a model where hierarchies of beliefs (the beliefs about the beliefs of other agents, etc.) are important. I provide conditions under which optimal actions of agents will converge to the Nash equilibrium of the model characterized by the true, previously unknown ``fundamentals.'' The conditions are (i) a contraction property on the best-response mappings and (ii) a mutual absolute contin...

This paper gives local stability conditions for convergence of the price dynamics in a cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations, generalizing the example of Brock and Hommes (1997). When agents choose between rational, naive, and adaptive beliefs, the steady state may be locally asymptotically stable if the adaptive predictor places enough weight on past prices and is costless. I...

I apply a prospect theory model of risk preferences with an endogenously determined reference point to propose an alternative objective of maximizing expected outcome rather than maximizing expected utility. I show that an agent can always form a consistent expected outcome for any binary gamble and derive a parametric formula, which can then be used to examine the effects of loss aversion, ris...

This paper investigates the mechanism through which short selling of a bank’s stocks can trigger the failure of the bank. In the model, creditors, who learn information from stock prices, will grow increasingly unsure about the bank’s true fundamentals in facing noisier stock prices; thus a run on the bank is more likely because of creditors’ concave payo¤. Understanding this, speculators condu...

This paper deals with risk measurement and portfolio optimization under risk constraints. Firstly we give an overview of risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk theory, focusing on moment-based, distortion and spectral risk measures. We subsequently apply these ideas to an asset management framework using a database of hedge funds returns chosen for their nonGaussian features. We deal with t...

We describe conditions on signal distributions that are necessary and sufficient for informational herding in a stylized model of sequential specialist security trading. Curiously, there can be persistent herding even with signals that satisfy the Monotone Likelihood Ratio Property. Price paths are strongly biased in the direction of the herd but prices are also very sensitive to movements agai...

I study the effects of a lack of common knowledge on nominal adjustment in a dynamic price-setting game with incomplete information. In particular, I show how the speed of price adjustments following a nominal or real shock depends on the information structure among pricesetters. The provision of public information leads to a reduction of higher-order uncertainty, and hence to more rapid price ...

Manski [2004] analyzes the relationship between the distribution of traders’ beliefs and the equilibrium price in a prediction market with risk neutral traders. He finds that there can be a substantial difference between the mean belief that an event will occur, and the price of an asset that pays one dollar if the event occurs and otherwise pays nothing. This result is puzzling, since these ma...

We study adaptive learning in a monetary overlapping generations model with sticky prices and monopolistic competition for the case where learning agents observe current endogenous variables. Observability of current variables is essential for informational consistency of the learning setup with the model set up but generates multiple temporary equilibria when prices are flexible and prevents a...

We consider a linear univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and study existence and stability of solutions driven by an extraneous finite-state Markov process. We show that when the model is indeterminate there exists a new class of kstate dependent sunspot equilibria in addition to the k-state sunspot equilibria (k-SSEs) already known to exist in part of the ind...