One of the most challenging aspects in analysis and modelling financial markets, including Credit Default Swap (CDS) is presence an emergent, intermediate level structure standing between microscopic dynamics individual entities macroscopic market as a whole. This elusive, mesoscopic organisation often sought for via factor models that ultimately decompose according to geographic regions econom...

We introduce the general arbitrage-free valuation framework for counterparty risk adjustments in presence of bilateral default risk, including default of the investor. We illustrate the symmetry in the valuation and show that the adjustment involves a long position in a put option plus a short position in a call option, both with zero strike and written on the residual net value of the contract...

I develop various frameworks for the separation of loss given default and default intensity present in securities with credit risk. They include spot and forward credit default swaps, digital default swaps and bonds. Cross-sectional no-arbitrage restriction between different securities extracts the pure measure of default intensity and loss given default not contaminated by the other. Using spo...

This paper empirically investigates the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the spreads of credit default swaps (CDS). While existing literature acknowledges the importance of the levels of macroeconomic factors in determining CDS spreads, we show that the second moments of these factors—macroeconomic uncertainty—predict CDS spreads even in the presence of traditional macroeconomic factors s...

Equity default swaps (EDS) are hybrid credit-equity products that provide a bridge from credit default swaps (CDS) to equity derivatives with barriers. This paper develops an analytical solution to the EDS pricing problem under the Jump-toDefault Extended Constant Elasticity VarianceModel (JDCEV) of Carr and Linetsky. Mathematically, we obtain an analytical solution to the first passage time pr...

This paper explores the nature of default arrival and recovery implicit in the term structures of sovereign CDS spreads. We argue that term structures of spreads reveal not only the arrival rates of credit events (λ), but also the loss rates given credit events. Applying our framework to Mexico, Turkey, and Korea, we show that a single-factor model with λ following a lognormal process captures ...

This study investigates the relationship between COVID-19 measured by growth in number of weekly confirmed new cases and stock returns major indices selected Middle East North Africa (MENA) countries. To test influence on returns, this uses panel data methodology using 19 March 2020 31 December 2020. Contrary to expectations, our findings fail demonstrate a significant link market index COVID-1...

We present an empirical study of the pricing effect of liquidity in the credit default swaps (CDS) market. We construct liquidity proxies to capture various facets of CDS liquidity including adverse selection, search frictions, and inventory costs. We show that the liquidity effect on CDS spreads is significant with an estimated liquidity premium on par with those of Treasury bonds and corporat...

This paper examines the interaction between default risk and interest-rate risk in determining the term structure of credit default swap spreads at different industry sectors and credit rating classes. The paper starts with a parsimonious three-factor interest-rate dynamic term structure and projects the credit spread at each industry sector and rating class to these interest-rate factors while...