The impact of fast moving items, modeled by auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) type processes, on the bullwhip effect is well known. However, slow moving items that can be modeled using integer ARMA processes have received little attention. Herein, we measure the impact of bullwhip effect under a first order integer auto-regressive, INAR(1), demand process. We consider a simple two-stage sup...

In this paper, we propose a time series based method for analyzing and predicting personal medical data. First, we introduce an auto-regressive integrated moving average model which is good for all time series processes. Second, we describe how to identify a personalized time series model based on the patient’s history information, followed by estimating the parameters in the model. Furthermore...

Abstract—The article presents an application of Fractional Model Predictive Control (FMPC) to a fractional order thermal system using Controlled Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (CARIMA) model obtained by discretization of a continuous fractional differential equation. Moreover, the output deviation approach is exploited to design the K -step ahead output predictor, and the correspondi...

We develop a new class of Continuous-time Auto-Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving-Average (CARFIMA) models which are useful for modelling regularly-spaced and irregularly-spaced discrete-time long-memory data. We derive the autocovariance function of a stationary CARFIMA model, and study maximum likelihood estimation of a regression model with CARFIMA errors, based on discrete-time data ...

Electricity price forecasting has become an integral part of power system operation and control. In this paper, a wavelet transform (WT) based neural network (NN) model to forecast price profile in a deregulated electricity market has been presented. The historical price data has been decomposed into wavelet domain constitutive sub series using WT and then combined with the other time domain va...

Accurate electricity price forecasting plays an important role in the profits of electricity market participants and the healthy development of electricity market. However, the electricity price time series hold the characteristics of volatility and randomness, which make it quite hard to forecast electricity price accurately. In this paper, a novel hybrid model for electricity price forecastin...

We evaluate and compare several forecasting techniques using no exogenous inputs for predicting the solar power output of a 1 MWp, single-axis tracking, photovoltaic power plant operating in Merced, California. The production data used in this work corresponds to hourly averaged power collected from November 2009 to August 2011. Data prior to January 2011 is used to train the several forecastin...