Herman Kahn, a military strategist at Rand Corporation, first applied the term scenario to planning in the 1950s (Schoemaker, 1993). Scenarios are constructed for discovering possibilities, leading to a projection of the most likely alternative. Scenarios offer a dynamic view of possible futures (Weinstein, 2007; NIC, 2004). Scenarios are not forecasts (Schwartz, 1991), predictions (Weinstein, ...

The European Union’s environmental policies actively promote the transition to a low-carbon society and sustainable energy systems that improve people’s quality of life do not negatively impact natural environment. To achieve these goals, Union funded several programs pilot efficiency measures for buildings districts and, lately, launched Green Deal. results experimentations have shown often ec...

This paper describes the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios, the first to take account of CO2 emissions from the whole of the UK’s energy system, including emissions from international shipping and aviation. It builds on Part I, which outlined the backcasting methodology developed to generate the scenarios. The five scenarios produced through this process articulate alternative vision of a subst...