This paper revisits the time-series relation between the conditional risk premium and variance of the equity market portfolio. The main innovation is that we construct a measure of the ex ante equity market risk premium using corporate bond yield spread data. This measure is forward-looking and does not rely critically on either realized equity returns or instrumental variables. We find strong ...

The paper develops a quality adjusted professional sports franchise price index for North America based on a repeat sale method. This index reflects trends in the general price of sports franchises holding local market, facility, and team characteristics constant. The price index exhibits considerable volatility but no upward trend over time, unlike previous quality adjusted price indexes based...

We introduce a novel approach to estimating latent oil risk factors and establish their significance in pricing non-oil securities. Our model, which features four factors with simple economic interpretations, is estimated using both derivative prices and oil-related equity returns. The fit is excellent in and out of sample. The extracted oil factors carry significant risk premia, and are signif...

This article constructs an economic model of a rational trader who operates in a market with transaction costs and noise trading. The level of trading affects the rational trader’s marginal cost of transacting; as a result, trading volume (through its effect on marginal cost) is a source of risk. This engenders an equilibrium relationship between returns and volume. The model also provides a si...

In this paper we argue that in realistically calibrated two period general equilibrium models with incomplete markets CAPM-pricing provides a good benchmark for equilibrium prices even when agents are not mean-variance optimizers and returns are not normally distributed. We numerically approximate equilibria for a variety of di erent speci cations for preferences, endowments and dividends and c...

This paper examines the level of integration of European stock markets. We estimate a conditional asset pricing model, which allows for a time-varying degree of integration that measures the importance of EU-wide risk relative to country-speci c risk. The model accounts for intra-European currency risk, time-varying quantities and prices of risk. The results indicate that the degree of integrat...

I extract credit pricing information from the prices of callable corporate debt, by disentangling the components of callable corporate bond prices associated with discounting at market interest rates, discounting for default risk, and optionality. The results include the first empirical analysis, in the setting of standard arbitrage-free term-structure models, of the time-series behavior of cal...

We study the representative consumer’s risk attitude and efficient risk-sharing rules in a singleperiod, single-good economy in which consumers have homogeneous probabilistic beliefs but heterogeneous risk attitudes. We prove that if all consumers have convex absolute risk tolerance, so must the representative consumer. We also identify a relationship between the curvature of an individual cons...

Using an ordinal approach to utility, in the spirit of Hicks (1962, 1967a), it is possible to greatly simplify the theory of asset prices. The basic assumption is to summarize any probability distribution into its moments so that preferences over distributions can be mapped into preferences over vectors of moments. This implies that assets, like Lancaster’s (1966) consumption goods, are bundles...

This study examines the performance of the S&P 100 implied volatility as a forecast of future stock market volatility. The results indicate that the implied volatility is an upward biased forecast, but also that it contains relevant information regarding future volatility. The implied volatility dominates the historical volatility rate in terms of ex ante forecasting power, and its forecast err...