Oil palm is one of the largest agricultural products in Indonesia and has high economic value can improve welfare oil farmers. The research was conducted at PT. Agro Putra Lestari regarding production, having its address Jln.Imam Bonjol No.179 Kisaran with name leader being Mr. Anda Puta Lubis, SE, M, Ma. a company that produces fruit which still running. spread across Asahan area, including Me...

The popularity of TCP/IP has resulted in an increase in usage of best-effort networks for real-time communication. Much effort has been spent to ensure quality of service for soft real-time traffic over IP networks. The Internet Engineering Task Force has proposed some architecture components, such as Active Queue Management (AQM). The paper investigates the influence of the weighted moving ave...

Control charts for monitoring of process variance are developed based on Shewhart, exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts for mean. In all these variance control charts, log transformation of the sample variance is used. The design procedure of this chart is complex and it is poorly understood by the industry. In this paper a EWMA chart for monito...

Generally, the traditional Shewhart p chart has been developed by for charting the binomial data. This chart has been developed using the normal approximation with condition as low defect level and the small to moderate sample size. In real applications, however, are away from these assumptions due to skewness in the exact distribution. In this paper, a modified Exponentially Weighted Moving Av...

The main goal of this paper is to study Statistical Process Control (SPC) with Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart when observations are seriallycorrelated. The characteristic of control chart is Average Run Length (ARL) which is the average number of samples taken before an action signal is given. Ideally, an acceptable ARL of in-control process should be enough large, s...

We study the autocorrelation structure and the spectral density function of aggregates from a discrete-time process. The underlying discrete-time process is assumed to be a stationary AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving-Average (ARFIMA) process, after suitable number of differencing if necessary. We derive closed-form expressions for the limiting autocorrelation function and the norma...

With the increasing competition in the telecommunications industry, the operators try their best to increase telecom income via various measures, one of which is to set an amount of income as a goal to make the encouragement. Since accurate forecast of income plays an important role in income target setting, this paper builds a time series Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) ...

We examine recursive out-of-sample forecasting of monthly postwar U.S. core inflation and log price levels. We use the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model with explanatory variables (ARFIMAX). Our analysis suggests a significant explanatory power of leading indicators associated with macroeconomic activity and monetary conditions for forecasting horizons up to two years....

This paper develops a general asymptotic theory for the estimation of strictly stationary and ergodic time series models. Under simple conditions that are straightforward to check, we establish the strong consistency, the rate of strong convergence and the asymptotic normality of a general class of estimators that includes LSE, MLE, and some M-type estimators. As an application, we verify the a...

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important process in the hydrological cycle and needs to be accurately quantified for proper irrigation scheduling and optimal water resources systems operation. The time variant characteristics of ET necessitate the need for forecasting ET. In this paper, two techniques, namely a seasonal ARIMA model and Winter's exponential smoothing model, have been inv...