Increasing climate variability will put crop production at risk, undermining the sustainability of agriculture-based livelihoods. Much effort has gone into assessing differential vulnerability – or who is risk. However, time dimension increased risk when often only implicitly included in modelling, statistical and empirical studies. We define explore concept “critical moments” (CMs); that is, p...

Abstract. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) mission is to deliver high-quality global medium-range numerical weather predictions and monitoring of the Earth system its member states. modelling forecasting natural hazards are an important part this mission. Challenges in area include integration innovative observations into system; realistic representations water, en...