We examine the dissent voting record of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its first decade. Probit estimates indicate the impact of career experience on dissent voting is negligible, whereas the impact of forecast inflation is pronounced. In addition to finding a role for dynamics, we also find a role for unobserved heterogeneity in the form of member-specific fixed-effects...

Factored models of multiagent systems address the complexity of joint behavior by exploiting locality in agent interactions. History-dependent graphical multiagent models (hGMMs) further capture dynamics by conditioning behavior on history. The hGMM framework also brings new elements of strategic reasoning and more expressive powers to modeling information diffusion over networks. We propose a ...

We study the electoral effects of arrival 1.3 million Venezuelan refugees in Colombia as a consequence humanitarian crisis. exploit fact that forced migrants disproportionately locate places with earlier settlements Venezuelans after intensification find larger migration shocks increase voter’s turnout and shift votes from left-to right-wing political ideologies. These are predominantly driven ...

In traditional models, votes are an expression of preferences and beliefs. Psychological theories of cognitive dissonance suggest, however, that behavior may shape preferences. In this view, the very act of voting may influence political attitudes. A vote for a candidate may lead to more favorable interpretations of his actions in the future. We test the empirical relevance of cognitive dissona...

Introduction Previous work in the analysis of politicians' voting behavior has proposed that voting is often influenced by a combination of party, and one's relative status within a particular governing body (Cho and Fowler 2010, Clark, Pelika, and Rigby 2010, Porter et al. 2005). These papers used a variety of techniques to develop networks of politicians, with the most notable being those tha...