A vector autoregressive model allowing for unit roots as well as explosive characteristic roots is developed. The Granger-Johansen representation shows that this results in processes with two common features: a random walk and an explosively growing process. Co-integrating and co-explosive vectors can be found which eliminate these common factors. Likelihood ratio tests for linear restrictions ...

This paper discusses summary measures for the speed of adjustment in possibly cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Processes (VAR). In particular we propose long-run half-lives, based on interim and total multipliers. We discuss their relation with Granger-noncausality and other types of half-life, which are shown to convey different information, except in the univariate AR(1) case. We present li...

This study further develops a party to party gas price bargaining model (expanded in a research paper by Okugu, 2002) by using proxies of prices of these replacement fuels in OPEC spot oil prices and Henry Hub (HH) spot gas prices. The study finds a significant relationship between the variables. When optimally lagged data are analysed in a vector autoregressive model, a significant longer-term...

This paper tackles two issues: (1) lead and lag relationship among regions and the role of the industry mix effect to this phenomenon are explored; (2) concurrent and lagged effects of the industry mix on the regional economic fluctuations are measured explicitly with the national shock identified from the principal components method. The empirical analysis focuses on five Midwest states. The f...

The present paper analyses the impact of sales promotions on store performance, in the short and long term, from the retailer’s point of view. Relationships among promoted and regular sales in the hypermarkets of a large-scale retail chain of national importance, are investigated by means of a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). Statistically significant effects of sales promotions i...

We congratulate Koenker and Xiao on their interesting and important contribution to the quantile autoregression (QAR). The paper provides a comprehensive overview on the QAR model, from probabilistic aspects, to model identification, statistical inferences, and empirical applications. The attempt to integrate the quantile regression and the QAR process is intriguing. It demonstrates surprisingl...

This paper explores the relationship between the health of the financial sector and the rest of the economy. We develop an indicator of financial sector health using a distance-to-default measure based on a Merton-style option pricing model. Our measure spans over three decades and appears to capture periods when financial sector institutions were strong and when they were weak. We then use vec...

We calculate the NAIRU for the U.S. in a framework where inflation and the unemployment rate can respond to each other. The NAIRU is defined as the component of the actual unemployment rate that is uncorrelated with inflation in the long run. Using a structural VAR approach, the NAIRU and core inflation can be estimated simultaneously. Our estimation results show that the NAIRU falls dramatical...

The aim of this paper is to explore, empirically, the channels of crisis transmission with regard to the Global financial crisis. EMP-based crisis proxy is used for eight countries, which include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Mexico and Russia. The period considered for estimation was Q1 2001 Q2 2010. Based on the Vector AutoRegression (VAR) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS...