Fundamental properties of conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), as a measure of risk with significant advantages over value-at-risk (VaR), are derived for loss distributions in finance that can involve discreetness. Such distributions are of particular importance in applications because of the prevalence of models based on scenarios and finite sampling. CVaR is able to quantify dangers beyond VaR a...

Long memory (long-term dependence) seems to be as widespread in financial time series as in nature. Inspired by the long memory property, Multi-fractal processes have recently been introduced as a new tool for modeling the stylized facts in financial time series. In this paper, we attempt to construct a bivariate multi-fractal model, and implement its estimation via both GMM and likelihood appr...

This paper examines, for the Brazilian case, if break-even inflation rates (BEIR) extracted from fixed income securities is an unbiased estimator of consumer inflation, measured by the CPI. Our estimates suggest that BEIRs are informative about future inflation, especially for the maturity of three months. The main innovation of our work, however, is the method used for estimation, allowing us ...

In this paper we discuss sensitivity of forecasts with respect to the information set considered in prediction; a sensitivity measure called impact factor, IF, is defined. This notion is specialized to the case of VAR processes integrated of order 0, 1 and 2. For stationary VARs this measure corresponds to the sum of the impulse response coefficients. For integrated VAR systems, the IF has a di...

The objective of this study is to compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. The focus is on a comparison of subset modeling strategies with the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets. Different measures of the possible gains of model selection are considered: (i) the chances of finding th...

This paper examines the sectoral and intertemporal impacts of international emigrant remittances by using a vector auto-regression (VAR) estimation focusing on Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV countries). The reason for targeting the CLMV countries is that they have still depended largely on remittance-earnings from their emigrant workers in their economies, and that the macroeconom...

This paper investigates the effect of a positive technology shock on per capita hours worked within the class of Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive [BVAR] models. Such a framework avoids the current debate regarding the specification issue of per capita hours [level versus first-difference stationary]. Six priors are considered and for each, we examine the impulse responses of per capita hours fol...

Purpose of the paper The Basel Committee regulations require the estimation of Value-at-Risk at 99% confidence level for a 10-trading-day-ahead forecasting horizon. The paper provides a multivariate modelling framework for multi-period VaR estimates for leptokurtic and asymmetrically distributed real-estate portfolio returns. The purpose of the paper is to estimate accurate 10-day-ahead 99% VaR...

PfEMP1 are variant parasite antigens that are inserted on the surface of Plasmodium falciparum infected erythrocytes (IE). Through interactions with various host molecules, PfEMP1 mediate IE sequestration in tissues and play a key role in the pathology of severe malaria. PfEMP1 is encoded by a diverse multi-gene family called var. Previous studies have shown that that expression of specific sub...

The structure of F13, a plasmid containing lac, purE, and proC, has been determined by heteroduplex analysis. As expected for an F-prime formed by a type II excision event, it contains all the sequences of F plus a large segment of Escherichia coli chromosomal deoxyribonucleic acid. There is a sequence of F with coordinates 16.3-17.6F which has been shown in other studies to be the insertion se...