Many questions in economics involve long-run or “trend” variation and covariation in time series. Yet, time series of typical lengths contain only limited information about this long-run variation. This paper suggests that long-run sample information can be isolated using a small number of low-frequency trigonometric weighted averages, which in turn can be used to conduct inference about long-r...

This paper studies the supply management of a primary input, where this input gives rise to multiple products in fixed proportions. My objective is twofold. First, I study fixed proportions technology under demand uncertainty in comparison with flexible and the dedicated technologies. I show that fixed proportions technology has a costpooling value over dedicated technology, which is larger tha...

It has long been argued that populations living on the edges of the species geographical range should exhibit stronger environmentally imposed variations in abundances than populations living near the centre of this range. This so-called ‘Species Range Hypothesis’ is tested here for the recruitment of 62 marine fish populations of the northeast Atlantic, belonging to 17 species. The pattern of ...

In recent years, there has been a growing interest for probabilistic data management. We focus on probabilistic time series where a main characteristic is the high volumes of data, calling for efficient compression techniques. To date, most work on probabilistic data reduction has provided synopses that minimize the error of representation w.r.t. the original data. However, in most cases, the c...

Variability, in general, has a deteriorating effect on the performance of stochastic inventory systems. In particular, previous results indicate that demand variability causes a performance degradation in terms of inventory related costs when production capacity is unlimited. In order to investigate the effects of demand variability in capacitated production settings, we analyse a make-to-stock...

We consider estimation of quantile curves for a general class of nonstationary processes. Consistency and central limit results are obtained for local linear quantile estimates under a mild short-range dependence condition. Our results are applied to environmental data sets. In particular, our results can be used to address the problem of whether climate variability has changed, an important pr...

Improving understanding and prediction of the potato (Solanum tuberosum) tuber size over the growing season is important due to its effects on crop price and marketing. Several models have been proposed to describe potato growth and development, but are based on short-term data and have little use for predicting yields or in-season management decisions. This analysis uses long-term data collect...

This paper presents a testing-based semantic preorder for reasoning about the predictability of realtime systems specified using the process description language TPL. The predictability of the systems is measured in terms of the amount of variability present in their “activity-completion times”. The semantic preorder is shown to coincide with an already existing, well-investigated implementatio...

This study examines whether both the trend and the increase in variance of the Northern Hemisphere winter annular mode during the past 30 years arise from atmospheric internal variability. To address this question, a synthetic time series is generated that has the same intraseasonal stochastic properties as the annular mode. By generating a distribution of linear trend values for the synthetic ...