In some cases, currency crises are followed by strong recessions (e.g., recent Asian and Argentinean crises), but in other cases they are not. This paper uses Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) to search for meaningful associations between speculative attacks’ real effects and 28 variables that characterize the economic, financial, legal, and socio-political structure of the country at the onset of the...

Global games of regime change that is, coordination games of incomplete information in which a status quo is abandoned once a sufficiently large fraction of agents attacks it have been used to study crises phenomena such as currency attacks, bank runs, debt crises, and political change. We extend the static benchmark examined in the literature by allowing agents to accumulate information over t...

This paper is the first to apply a nested logit model to measure the probabilities of speculative attacks and the probabilities of successful defenses by the central banks. This model allows us to predict not only the probability of speculative attacks but also the probability of successful defenses given attacks. Also, it provides a framework to analyze the degree to which different factors af...

Based on the experience of the Portuguese and Spanish financial crises in the early 1990s, this paper suggests that the spillover of exchange rate crises may reveal a particular dimension of the financial contagion effect: the presumption of mimetic behaviour by monetary authorities. This paper analyses the evolution of the credibility of the Escudo and the Peseta. We set out to test the existe...