We incorporate external information extracted from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters into predictions a Bayesian VAR using entropic tilting and soft conditioning. The resulting conditional forecasts significantly improve plain BVAR point density forecasts. Importantly, we do not restrict at specific quarterly horizon but their possible paths over several horizons jo...

The Su(var)3-7 protein is essential for fly viability, and several lines of evidence support its key importance in heterochromatin formation: it binds to pericentric heterochromatin, it potently suppresses variegation and it interacts with HP1. However, the mode of action of Su(var)3-7 is poorly understood. Here we investigate in vivo the consequences of increased Su(var)3-7 expression on fly v...

The application of next-generation sequencing to estimate genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum, the most lethal malaria parasite, has proved challenging due to the skewed AT-richness [∼80.6% (A + T)] of its genome and the lack of technology to assemble highly polymorphic subtelomeric regions that contain clonally variant, multigene virulence families (Ex: var and rifin). To address this, ...

This paper provides a unified approach to estimate the probability of joint default under classical models in the bottom up approach. Starting from a toy model defined on the Gaussian random variable in one dimension, we develop an importance sampling scheme and consider it variance approximation problem with a small scale. By means of the large deviation principle, the importance sampling is p...

This paper uses new data on job creation and job destruction to find evidence of a link between the jobless recoveries of the last two recessions and the recent decline in aggregate volatility known as the Great Moderation. I find that the last two recessions are characterized by jobless recoveries that came about through contrasting margins of employment adjustment—a relatively slow decline in...

In most eukaryotes, the histone methyltransferase SU(VAR)3-9 and its orthologues play amajor role in the function of centromeric heterochromatin. Although the methyltransferase domain isrequired for the formation of a fully functional centromere, mutations within other regions of the genesuch as the N-terminus also have a strong impact on its in vivo function. To analyze the contrib...

We conduct a simulation study of Local Projection (LP) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimators structural impulse responses across thousands data generating processes, designed to mimic the properties universe U.S. macroeconomic data. Our analysis considers various identification schemes several variants LP VAR estimators. A clear bias-variance trade-off emerges: have lower bias than but sub...

Vector autoregressions (VAR) are extensively used to model economic time series. The large number of parameters is the main diicult with VAR models, however. To overcome this, Litterman (1986) suggests to use a Bayesian strategy to estimate the VAR, equation by equation, where, a priori, the lags have decreasing importance (known as Litterman Prior). In this paper, a VAR model is analyzed throu...