ABSTRACT - Cultivation of legumes in crop rotations results in atmosphere nitrogen fixation. After harvesting, part of this external nitrogen remains in soil and is used by subsequent crops. This implies that producers would gain from lowering the amount of nitrogen fertilizer in their fields. In this study, stochastic simulation is used to generate probability distributions of net present valu...

Capturing the Uncertainty in Long-Term Mortality Forecasts The uncertainty future longevity presents a substantial risk factor for insurance companies, pension funds, and retirement systems. In “Modeling Risk Projections,” Zhu Bauer present novel stochastic models analyzing this that focus on associated with long-term mortality projections capture evolution of forecasts over past decades. They ...

The introduction of the Lee–Carter (LC) method marked a breakthrough in mortality forecasting, providing simple yet powerful data-driven stochastic approach. has merit capturing dynamics change by single time index that is almost invariably linear. This thirtieth anniversary review its 1992 publication examines LC and large body research it since spawned. We first describe present 30-year ex po...

Abstract The Lee–Carter model has become a benchmark in stochastic mortality modeling. However, its forecasting performance can be significantly improved upon by modern machine learning techniques. We propose convolutional neural network (NN) architecture for rate forecasting, empirically compare this as well other NN models to the and find that lower forecast errors are achievable many countri...

We analyze an interacting particle system with a Markov evolution of birth-anddeath type. We have shown that a local competition mechanism (realized via a density dependent mortality) leads to a globally regular behavior of the population in course of the stochastic evolution.

The stochastic population dynamics model used by Aboriginal Whaling Management Procedure developers is revised to correct weaknesses related to uncertainty parameterisation and replacement yield estimation. Two variants of this model, along with the standard determinis-tic version, are used to assess the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales. The variants diier with respect to th...

background: mortality refers to the death that occurs within a population. it is linked to many factors such as age, sex, race, occupation and social class. the incidence and prevalence of mortality could affect the population's stan­dard of living and health care. the aim of this study was to explore the pattern of mortality trends in iran, south-south west asia and the world in 1970-2010. met...

objective: to analyze the trend in maternal mortality ratio in a tertiary care centre and the effect of various maternity schemes on it. materials and methods:  retrospective analysis of all maternal deaths occurring in the guru gobind singh medical college & hospital, faridkot, punjab, india was done from jan 2010 to dec 2012. every maternal death was scrutinized from various aspects like dire...

In the previous studies, correlation between natural background radiation exposure rates and cancer mortality rates in 46 Japanese prefectures was statistically studied over the period of 1950-1978. With regard to the correlation between natural background radiation exposure rate and crude (non-age-adjusted) cancer mortality rate, statistically significant positive correlation coefficients were...

OBJECTIVE To quantify uncertainty in forecasts of health expenditures. STUDY DESIGN Stochastic time series models are estimated for historical variations in fertility, mortality, and health spending per capita in the United States, and used to generate stochastic simulations of the growth of Medicare expenditures. Individual health spending is modeled to depend on the number of years until de...