There has been serious suspicion of a spurious rejection of the unit roots in panel studies of PPP due to the failure to control for cross-sectional dependence. This article presents evidence of mean-reversion in industrial country real exchange rates in a set up that accounts naturally for cross-sectional dependence, is invariant to the benchmark currency and capable of detecting against regim...

This paper reports on experimental tests of the Lucas asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents and time-varying (individual) endowment streams. In order to emulate key features of the model (infinite horizon, stationarity, perishability of consumption), a novel experimental design was required. The experimental evidence provides broad support for the cross-sectional, inter-temporal pricing...

In this paper we consider general rst order autoregression, including the stationary, the explosive and the unstable case. It is well-known in the literature that the usual bootstrap method for the least squares parameter estimator is asymptotically consistent for the stationary and the explosive case, but does not work in the unstable case, where the parameter value is equal to + 1 or {1. We p...

This paper exploits the fact that any time series with a unit root can de decomposed into a stationary series and a random walk. Since the random walk component can have arbitrarily small variance, tests for unit roots or trend stationarity have arbitrarily low power in finite samples. Furthermore, there are unit root processes whose likelihood functions and autocorrelation functions are arbitr...

Starting from known necessary extremality conditions in terms of strict subdifferentials and normals the notion of weak stationarity is introduced. It is defined in terms of initial space elements. The necessary conditions become necessary and sufficient (for stationarity).

Using local-to-unity detrending, a modified momentum-threshold autoregressive test is derived to allow the unit root hypothesis to be tested against an alternative of asymmetric stationarity about a deterministic trend. Monte Carlo evidence is presented to show the increased power of the proposed test in the presence of asymmetric adjustment relative to the familiar Dickey-Fuller (1979) test an...

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) and Westerlund and Edger...

This paper performs multiple-break unit root tests on the data of China’s national and sectoral output and labour productivity, with finite-sample critical values bootstrapped through Monte Carlo simulations. We find strong evidence against the unit-root hypothesis in favour of the segmentedtrend-stationarity alternative. Based on breaking trend functions, the steady-state and transitional grow...

EXt = μ Cov(Xt, Xt−k) = γk (lag-k autocovariance). The lag zero autocovariance γ0 is just the variance of the time series. γk’s are of central importance in time series analysis as they characterize the serial dependence over observations (i.e. over time). We usually do not have iid data in time series contexts. A white noise series is stationary. A white noise (WN) series is defined as an unco...

We present an axiom system for a weak form of expectation operators leading to an interpretation in which a probabilistic process is modelled as a set of Markov matrices rather than a single matrix. Such`generalised Markov processes' have applications in computing science for modelling probabilistic programming and speciication languages 7, 4]. We use the resulting calculus of operators over a ...