This paper establishes the link of microstructure and macroeconomic factors with the timevarying conditional correlation of foreign exchange and excess equity returns. By using the proposed DCC model with exogenous variables, capital flows and interest rate differentials are shown to be significant determinants of this correlation which is inclusive of the short-run variation of both asset retu...

Within a flexible parametric regression framework (Hamilton, 2001) we provide further evidence on the existence of a nonlinear component in the quarterly growth rate of the US real GNP. We implement a battery of new tests for neglected nonlinearity based on the theory of random fields (Dahl and González-Rivera, 2003). We find that the nonlinear component is driven by the fifth lag of the growth...

The real exchange rate real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models. However, empirical support for the relationship, especially when cointegrationbased methods are used, is rather weak. In this paper we reinvestigate the RERI relationship using bilateral real exchange rate data spanning the period 1978 to 1997. We first clarify the logic of applyi...

This paper employs non-parametric specification tests developed in Hong and Li (2005) to evaluate several one-factor reduced-form credit risk models for actual default intensities. Using estimates for actual default probabilities provided by Moody’s KMV from 1994 to 2005 for 106 U.S. firms in seven industry groups, we strongly reject popular univariate affine model specifications. As a good com...