In this paper, we consider the optimal dividend strategy under the diffusion model with regime switching. In contrast to the classical risk theory, the dividends can only be paid at the arrival times of a Poisson process. By solving an auxiliary optimal problem, we show that the optimal strategy is the modulated barrier strategy. The value function can be obtained by iteration or by solving sys...

Our paper suggests a simple, recursive residuals (out-of-sample) graphical approach to evaluating the predictive power of popular equity premium and stock market timeseries forecasting regressions. When applied, we find that dividend ratios should have been known to have no predictive ability even prior to the 1990s, and that any seeming ability even then was driven by only two years, 1973 and ...

Yes. We find that dividend changes predict future unexpected earnings changes in each of the next four quarters. These earnings impacts are persistent, leading to higher than expected earnings levels for at least three years after the dividend change. These results are robust to various measures of expected earnings, including analyst forecasts and a flexible function of past earnings and retur...

Recent empirical studies of dividend taxation have found that: (1) dividend tax cuts cause large, immediate increases in dividend payouts, and (2) the increases are driven by firms with high levels of shareownership among top executives or the board of directors. These findings are inconsistent with existing "old view" and "new view" theories of dividend taxation. We propose a simple alternativ...

In this paper we study a class of optimal dividend and investment problems assuming that the underlying reserve process follows the Sparre Andersen model, that is, the claim frequency is a “renewal” process, rather than a standard compound Poisson process. The main feature of such problems is that the underlying reserve dynamics, even in its simplest form, is no longer Markovian. By using the b...

We model a risk-averse firm owner who wants to maximize the intertemporal expected utility of firm’s dividends. The optimal dynamic control problem is characterized by two stochastic state variables: equity value, and profitability (ROA) _rm. According empirical evi-dence, we let follow mean reverting process. solved in quasi-explicit form computing both dividend debt. Finally, calibrate actual...

An infectious disease will be eradicated only if it is eliminated everywhere, including in the hardest-to-reach, most vaccine-wary communities. If eradication is successful, it promises a dividend in the form of avoided infections and vaccinations. However, success is never certain unless and until eradication is achieved, and claiming the dividend means bearing the possibly great risk of re-em...