Improving return forecasting is very important for both investors and researchers in financial markets. In this study we try to aim this object by two new methods. First, instead of using traditional variable, gold prices have been used as predictor and compare the results with Goyal's variables. Second, unlike previous researches new machine learning algorithm called Deep learning (DP) has bee...

this paper investigates the forecasting gold coin futures contract price in iran mercantile exchange. this research has presented a hybrid model based on genetic fuzzy systems (gfs) and artificial neural network (ann) to forecast the gold futures contract, at first, we use stepwise regression analysis (sra) to determine factors which have most influence on stock prices. at the next stage we div...

Generally, high oil prices slow economic growth, cause inflationary pressures and creates global imbalances. In addition, oil price volatility increase uncertainty and restrain the much-needed investment in the capital market. Thus, this paper applies the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Johansen Co-integration Tests in which the effect of oil price volatility, crude oil price and stock price is ana...

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: F1 F4 Q43 N75 Keywords: Oil price shock Trade balance VAR Granger non-causality test Gregory-Hansen cointegration test This study aims to examine whether a large part of the variability of trade balances and their oil and non-oil components is associated with oil price fluctuations. The long-run causality running from oil price to overall, oil and non-o...

oil prices may be having a direct and indirect effect through the exchange rate on the price of agricultural commodities. in this paper, the impact of world oil prices and exchange rate shocks on prices of specific agricultural commodities including wheat, corn, soybeans and sunflowers in iran is discussed. for this purpose, vector autoregressive model with monthly data over the period 2010-199...

 The oil price shocks are an important source that affect on TOT in both oil exporting and importing countries. Hence, this paper compares the effects of real oil price shock on TOT in both oil importing and exporting countries, using Panel Data technique and during 1980-2010. To the best of our knowledge, we applied the nonlinear approach in order to assess the asymmetric impact of the oil pri...

Objectives: Given the importance of accurate prediction financial time series data and their benefits in real-life, AdaBoost-GRU ensemble learning is proposed which it’s forecasting accuracy to be compared with AdaBoost-LSTM, single Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). Methods: The for Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) obtained from Naver Finance January 2000 April...

Oil is the lifeblood of the industrial economy, oil prices are affected by many factors. China is a major industrial country, changes in the price of oil will affect many aspects of economic development, and therefore the price of crude oil research is extremely important. In this paper, monthly average prices of crude oil in Daqing from January 2000 to December 2010 are utilized to do the rese...