Numerous methods exist and were developed for global radiation forecasting. The two most popular types are the numerical weather predictions (NWP) and the predictions using stochastic approaches. This article presents a methodology for determining the best method to use, according to a rule related to the spatial resolution, temporal step and location. We propose to compute a parameter noted  ...

Ensemble forecasting is used in numerical weather prediction to give an improved estimate of the atmospheric state and to improve measures of forecast accuracy. While the method is effective, there are some fundamental issues in interpreting the ensemble as a statistically valid representation of uncertainty in the state of the atmosphere. Coupled with this interpretation is the difficulty in t...

Adaptive observation strategies in numerical weather prediction aim to improve forecasts by exploiting additional observations, at locations which are themselves determined by the current state of the atmosphere. The role played by an inexact estimate of the current state of the atmosphere (i.e. error in the \analysis") in restricting adaptive observation strategies is investigated; necessary c...

We present a calibration method for a water vapour Raman lidar using a meteorological probe lifted by a kite, flown steadily above the lidar site, within the framework of the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) and Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx) campaigns. The experiment was carried out in Menorca (Spain) during June 2013, using the mobile water vapo...

The Marine Meteorology Division of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL MMD) is actively involved in the field of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to provide continuous weather suDoort to the U. S. Navy for both wartime and peacetime missions. This support extends from the Surface of the earth to altitudes exceeding 10 km, and for time scales ranging from a few hours up to 7 days The NWP produc...

A precise wind power prediction is important for the integration of wind energy into the power grid. Besides numerical weather models for short-term predictions, there is a trend towards the development of statistical data-driven models that can outperform the classical forecast models [1]. In this paper, we improve a statistical prediction model proposed by Kramer and Gieseke [5], by employing...

In this paper we describe the implementation of a numerical weather forecast model on a massively parallel computer system. This model is a production code used for routine weather forecasting at the meteorological institutes of several European countries. The modi cations needed to achieve a data-parallel version of this model without explicit message passing are outlined. The achieved perform...

Session I contained seven presentations, which described the status of systems, used in the production of Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs). Each of the major production centres described present and future plans. A common thread in many of the presentations was the emerging production of high-density winds. The use of high density winds and improvements in quality control procedures portend a ...

Optimal prediction is a method to approximate the average solution of a large system of ordinary differential equations by a smaller system. In this thesis we show how optimal prediction can be applied in the field of molecular dynamics in order to reduce the number of particles. We apply optimal prediction to a model problem describing a surface coating process and show how asymptotic methods ...

In many industries weather conditions are a critical factor in planning business operations and making effective decisions. Typically, what optimization that is applied to these processes to enable proactive efforts utilize either historical weather data as a predictor of trends or weather forecasts of limited precision. Alternatively, numerical weather models operating at higher resolution in ...