Abstract: In this paper, we develop a novel electric power supply chain network model with fuel supply markets that captures both the economic network transactions in energy supply chains and the physical network transmission constraints in the electric power network. The theoretical derivation and analyses are done using the theory of variational inequalities. We then apply the model to a spec...

Forecasting energy price and consumption is essential in making effective managerial decisions and plans. While there are many sophisticated mathematical methods developed so far to forecast, some nature-based intelligent algorithms with desired characteristics have been developed recently. The main objective of this research is short term forecasting of energy price and consumption in Iranian ...

Abstract. In this paper we propose a new forecasting methodology that comprises simultaneous level-wise modeling in the wavelet domain. The WAW methodology (short for wavelet-armax-winters) uses three modeling startegies: ARMAX models capable of incorporating external inputs and model feedbacks, trigonometric regressions sensitive to seasonality effects and Holt-Winters models describing trends...

Research background: Natural gas markets are facing an ongoing process of diffusion natural liquefaction (LNG) technology. High mobility and relative ease LNG use predetermine a huge potential for globalization the formation single price space similar to oil world market. Purpose article: The purpose article is determining degree convergence offering assessment prospects globalization. Methods:...

Title of dissertation: A STOCHASTIC EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN NATURAL GAS MARKET Jifang Zhuang, Doctor of Philosophy, 2005 Dissertation directed by: Professor Steven A. Gabriel Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering This dissertation is an endeavor in the field of energy modeling for the North American natural gas market using a mixed complementarity formulation combin...

This article measures the extent to which prices exceed marginal costs in the U.S. natural gas distribution market during the period 1991-2007. We find large departures from marginal cost pricing in all 50 states, with residential and commercial customers facing average markups of over 40%. Based on conservative estimates of the price elasticity of demand these distortions impose hundreds of mi...

Section III of the text discusses the method we use to calculate a coal price index. Here we report the regression results for each region (see Table A.1). We also show the national average for comparison. While the type of coal a power plant purchases may change in response to natural gas prices, we are concerned that the heterogeneity in coal transactions within a plant may also reflect noise...

This paper considers the so called warehouse problem with both space and injection/withdrawal capacity limits. This is a foundational problem in the merchant management of assets for the storage of commodities, such as energy sources and natural resources. When the commodity spot price evolves according to an exogenous Markov process, this work shows that the optimal inventory trading policy of...

The use of coal is responsible for (1)/(5) of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Substitution of coal with biomass fuels is one of a limited set of near-term options to significantly reduce these emissions. We investigate, on a life cycle basis, 100% wood pellet firing and cofiring with coal in two coal generating stations (GS) in Ontario, Canada. GHG and criteria air pollutant emissions ar...

As a result of storability restrictions, the price risk management of flow commodities (such as natural gas, oil, and electrical power) is by no means a trivial matter.To protect price spikes, consumers purchase diverse swing– type contracts, whereas contract writers try to hedge themselves by appropriate physical assets, for instance, using storage utilities, through transmission and/or produc...