This paper presents a simple empirical approach to modeling and forecasting market option prices using localized option regressions (LOR). LOR projects market option prices over localized regions of their state space and is robust to assumptions regarding the underlying asset dynamics (e.g. log-normality) and volatility structure. Our empirical study using three years of daily S&P500 options sh...

The behavior of agents in financial markets often displays biases or errors; for example, agents frequently do not compute probabilities correctly. However, we argue that these biases/errors are not always reflected in prices. In particular, we hypothesize that agents who make errors in computing probabilities lose confidence in their probability estimates when they face market prices that are ...

Stock return is usually considered to be affected by firm’s financial ratios as well as economic variables. Fundamental method assume that stock returns is not solely related to the stock market. Most result come from the company condition , industry situation and whole economy. In this paper, this relationship between stock return and fundamentals is studied using the data for 22 pharmaceutica...

We present an arbitrage free theoretical framework for modeling bid and ask prices of dividend paying securities in a discrete time setup using theory of dynamic acceptability indices. In the first part of the paper we develop the theory of dynamic subscale invariant performance measures, on a general probability space, and discrete time setup. We prove a representation theorem of such measures...

After the war with Iraq which ended in 1988, Iran implemented several agricultural support policies based on Five-Year National Development Plans. The main objective of these plans in the agriculture sector was to make the agricultural economy more market-oriented and to encourage sustainable agriculture. This paper investigates the extent to which Iran's government has been able to achieve thi...

In this paper we motivate a specific formulation for preference that exhibits both love for variety and love for novelty. This enables to investigate the effects of ageing of imperfect substitutes, as they became progressively old-fashioned, due to the obsolescence of their aesthetic features. First, we assume that the industry is divided into several sub-markets, each dominated by a single fir...

This paper performs a welfare analysis of economies with private information when public information is endogenously generated and agents can condition on noisy public statistics in the rational expectations tradition. Equilibrium is not (restricted) efficient even when feasible allocations share similar properties to the market context (e.g., linear in information). The reason is that the mark...

This paper is a study of continuously resettled contingent claims prices in a stochastic economy. As special cases, the relationship between futures and forward prices is analyzed, and a preference-free expression is derived for these prices, as well as the price of a continuously resettled futures option, whose formula differs from Black’s futures option pricing formula due to the effects of m...

We consider a multiperiod financial exchange economy with nominal assets and restricted participation, where each agent’s portfolio choice is restricted to a closed, convex set containing zero, as in Siconolfi (1989). Using an approach that dates back to Cass (1984, 2006) in the unconstrained case, we seek to isolate arbitrage-free asset prices that are also quasi-equilibrium or equilibrium ass...