This paper proposes a new forecasting model for investigating relationship between the price of crude oil, as an important energy source and GDP of the US, as the largest oil consumer, and the UK, as the oil producer. GMDH neural network and MLFF neural network approaches, which are both non-linear models, are employed to forecast GDP responses to the oil price changes. The resul...

In this paper, the concept of long memory systems for forecasting is developed. The Pattern Modelling and Recognition System (PMRS) and Fuzzy Single Nearest Neighbour (SNN) methods are introduced as local approximation tools for forecasting. Such systems are used for matching current state of the time-series with past states to make a forecast. In the past, the PMRS system has been successfully...

The forecast of fluctuations and prices is the major concern in financial markets. Thus, developing an accurate and robust forecasting decision model is critically favorable to the investors. As gold has shown a special capability to smooth inflation fluctuations, governors use gold as a price controlling lever. Thus, more information about future gold price trends will help to make the firm de...

Modelling and forecasting Stock market is a challenging task for economists and engineers since it has a dynamic structure and nonlinear characteristic. This nonlinearity affects the efficiency of the price characteristics. Using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a proper way to model this nonlinearity and it has been used successfully in one-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead prediction of di...

Abstract: Accurate forecasting of carbon price is important and fundamental for anticipating the changing trends of the energy market, and, thus, to provide a valid reference for establishing power industry policy. However, carbon price forecasting is complicated owing to the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of carbon prices. In this paper, a combined forecasting model based on vari...