Combing back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) techniques, this study proposes EMD-BPNN model for forecasting. In the first stage, the original exchange rate series were first decomposed into a finite, and often small, number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). In the second stage, kernel predictors such as BPNN were constructed for forecasting. Compared w...

We propose a new family of easy-to-implement realized volatility based forecasting models. The models exploit the asymptotic theory for high-frequency realized volatility estimation to improve the accuracy of the forecasts. By allowing the parameters of the models to vary explicitly with the (estimated) degree of measurement error, the models exhibit stronger persistence, and in turn generate m...

This paper represents a long-standing collaboration between Robert Fildes and Brian Kingsman who sadly died before it could be completed. This paper proposes a methodology for examining the effect of demand uncertainty and forecast error on lot sizing methods, unit costs and customer service levels in MRP type manufacturing systems. A number of cost structures were considered which depend on th...

FORCASTING ERRORS IN STUDENT MEDIA MULTITASKING DURING HOMEWORK COMPLETION. Christopher A. Baker, Brittany E. Noah, Charles C. Calderwood, Jeffrey D. Green, Jennifer A. Joy-Gaba & Jaclyn M. Moloney, Department of Psychology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond VA 232842018. Many students report that they multitask with media while doing homework, but we know very little about why they en...

Forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the most important areas of research in the electric power industry, as it is a critical component of cost-efficient power system management and planning. In this context, accurate and robust load forecasting is supposed to play a key role in reducing generation costs, and deals with the reliability of the power system. However, due to demand ...

A broad range of economic assumptions are used to project the future income and outgo of the Social Security system. The assumptions adopted by the Board of Trustees of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Fund were rather consistently on the optimistic side of the actual experience that emerged. This article examines the experience of several key economic ...

The paper has been selected from the list of journals provided in the bibliography of behavioural finance available at I declare that this assignment is my own work and that I have correctly acknowledged the work of others. This assignment is in accordance with University and School guidance on good academic conduct (and how to avoid plagiarism and other assessment irregularities). I give permi...

In this paper, a variational data assimilation procedure for initialization of a cloud model using radar re ̄ectivity and radial velocity observations and its impact on short term rainfall forecasting are investigated in a simulation framework. The procedure is based on the formulation of an objective function, which consists of a linear combination of the squared di€erences between model foreca...

forecasting of municipal waste generation is a critical challenge for decision making and planning,because proper planning and operation of a solid waste management system is intensively affected by municipal solid waste (msw) streams analysis and accurate predictions of solid waste quantities generated. due to dynamic and complexity of solid waste management system, models by artificial intell...

This paper discusses forecasting of long memory and a nonparametric scale function in nonnegative financial processes based on a fractionally integrated Log-ACD (FILog-ACD) and its semiparametric extension (Semi-FI-Log-ACD). Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a stationary solution of the FI-Log-ACD are obtained. Properties of this model under log-normal assumption are summ...