Traditional GARCH models fail to explain at least two of the stylized facts found in financial series: the asymmetry of the distribution of errors and the leverage effect. The leverage effect stems from the fact that losses have a greater influence on future volatilities than do gains. Asymmetry means that the distribution of losses has a heavier tail than the distribution of gains. We test whe...

Forecasting stock exchange rates is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention. During the last few years, a number of neural network models and hybrid models have been proposed for obtaining accurate prediction results, in an attempt to outperform the traditional linear and nonlinear approaches. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of neural network models; recurre...

This paper is focused on examining the number of deaths' increases participation in the propagating the Ebola virus during the period ranging from March to October 2014. An application of the MGARCH-DCC model regressions on four countries has led to discover that the finding that human contact play a significant role in transmitting the Ebola virus. Our findings also reveal that Guinea has alre...

The asymmetric volatility, temporary volatility, and permanent volatility of financial asset returns have attracted much interest in recent years. However, a consensus has not yet been reached on the causes of them for both the stocks and markets. This paper researched asymmetric volatility and short-run and long-run volatility through global financial crisis for eight Asian markets. EGARCH and...

This paper focuses on portfolio risk forecasting in an asymmetrical framework. Risk is defined by two factors; the dependence structure and the volatility. In order to account for asymmetric dependencies, the return series’ interdependence is estimated via a Copula approach rather than the correlation matrix. This allows to capture tightening dependence during market turmoils and loose dependen...

ABSRACT In the wake of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, there has been a proliferation of new risk management and portfolio construction approaches. These approaches endeavour to capture the " stylised facts " of financial asset returns: heavy tails, negative skew, volatility clustering and asymmetric dependence. Many approaches capture two or three characteristics, while ...

We propose an extension of the CPPI method, which is based on conditional floors. In this framework, we examine in particular the margin based strategies. This method allows to keep part of the past gains and to protect the portfolio value against future high drawdowns of the financial market. However, as for the standard CPPI method, the investor can benefit from potential market rises. To con...

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effect of short selling on market volatility during exogenously-induced uncertainties. Using Covid-19 pandemic and onset Russian-Ukraine Conflicts periods as event study, employ asymmetric EGARCH model. We show high persistence effects pre-covid outbreak and post-covid periods. find evidence that increases during period while conflict is characte...