Accurate visibility forecasts, being necessary for military operations and field applications of opticallysensitive equipment such as advanced electro-optical (EO) systems, remain as a challenging scientific problem. One reason is because large spatial and temporal variations exist, not only with aerosol physical and optical properties, but with emission sources. Clearly, to further advance aer...

We consider modeling a time series of smooth curves and develop methods for forecasting such curves and dynamically updating the forecasts. The research problem is motivated by efficient operations management of telephone customer service centers, where forecasts of daily call arrival rate profiles are needed for service agent staffing and scheduling purposes. Our methodology has three componen...

Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecas...

Most of the existing large empirical literature on interest rate modeling focus on the in-sample performance of different models, in spite of the fact that the evolution of interest rates in the future not in the past is most relevant in many financial applications, such as pricing, hedging and risk management. In this paper, we provide probably the first comprehensive empirical study (to our k...

The numerical forecasts made in 1950 using the Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) paved the way for the remarkable advances that have been made over the past half-century in weather prediction and climate modeling. We review the circumstances in which the forecasts were made, the nature of the ENIAC machine, and the roles of the people involved. The basis for the forecasts was...

A method is proposed in this paper for estimating the uncertainty of a forecast from an econometric model. The method accounts for the four main sources of uncertainty: uncertainty due to (1) the error terms, (2) the coefficient estimates, (3) the exogenous-variable forecasts, and (4) the possible misspecification of the model. It also accounts for the fact that the variances of forecast errors...

1024x768 normal 0 false false false en-us x-none ar-sa background and objective: numerical modeling of biological structures would be very helpful tool to analyze hundreds of human body phenomena and also diseases diagnosis. one physiologic phenomenon is blood circulatory system and heart hemodynamic performance that can be simulated by utilizing lumped method. in this study, we can predict hem...

Analysts typically use a variety of techniques to forecast inflation. These include both ‘bottom-up’ approaches, for near-term forecasting, as well as econometric methods (such as mark-up models of inflation, which have been found to perform quite well for Australia – see de Brouwer and Ericsson (1998)). One of the econometric approaches to inflation forecasting which is sometimes considered is...