Among various indices of earthquake ground motions, the maximum amplitude value and frequency content have been regarded as the most important indices for earthquake engineering. These indices are strongly affected by local site conditions. Also the fact that the duration of earthquake ground motion differs from site to site even during the same earthquake has been noticed by many researchers. ...

A previous formula of the author's has been adapted to give the volume V of the region in which the material is near breaking-point, just prior to an extreme earthquake, in terms of the released energy and breaking-strength near the focus. In the light of recent earthquake energy-magnitude data of Gutenberg, Richter, and Benioff, it is inferred that V is at least of the order of the volume of a...

This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data w...

We present a new method for estimating earthquake detection probabilities that avoids assumptions about earthquake occurrence, for example, the event-size distribution, and uses only empirical data: phase data, station information, and network-specific attenuation relations. First, we determine the detection probability for each station as a function of magnitude and hypocentral distance, using...

At 14:46 on March 11, 2011, the magnitude-9.0 earthquake attacked Sendai and neighboring cities distributed along the northeast coast of Honshu Island, Japan. Its epicenter is located 130 km east of Sendai (Fig. 1). Unfortunate ly, the strong earthquake generated devastating tsunamis that destroyed many towns and villages near the seashore in Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures. The natura...

S U M M A R Y We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumpti...

A probabilistic neural network (PNN) is presented for predicting the magnitude of the largest earthquake in a pre-defined future time period in a seismic region using eight mathematically computed parameters known as seismicity indicators. The indicators considered are the time elapsed during a particular number (n) of significant seismic events before the month in question, the slope of the Gu...

A simplified stochastic model for earthquake occurrence focusing on the spatio-temporal interactions between earthquakes is presented. The model is a marked point process model in which each earthquake is represented by its magnitude and coordinates in space and time. The model incorporates the occurrence of aftershocks as well as the buildup and subsequent release of strain. The parameters of ...

On March 11, 2011 (hereafter 3.11), a magnitude nine earthquake hit the northeast part of Japan’s main island. The earthquake and subsequent tsunami damaged the cooling systems of the Fukushima No. 1 plant’s reactors operated by Tokyo Electric Company (TEPCO). Ranked seven (the most severe) on a seven-step scale by the International Atomic Energy Agency, comparable to the Chernobyl accident in ...

This paper describes a methodology to asses the uncertainty in seismic hazard estimates at particular sites. A variant of the bootstrap statistical method is used to combine the uncertainty due to earthquake catalog incompleteness, earthquake magnitude, and recurrence and attenuation models used. The uncertainty measure is provided in the form of a confidence interval. Comparisons of this metho...