We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of a bubble or pyramid scheme in …nancial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of the …nancial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show how the model can account for: (i) a gradual and protracted expansionary phase followed by a sudden and sharp reces...

This paper investigates risk premiums embedded in commodity convenience yields, i.e., returns on convenience-claim investments. The analysis is conducted in two steps. First, monthly convenience yields are extracted from a broad sample of commodity futures by using a three-factor model. Second, a multi-factor asset pricing model with conditional betas is estimated to determine risk premiums emb...

We use information contained in yield spreads to recover investors’ ex ante required rates of return on corporate securities, and then use these ex ante returns to study the pricing of risky assets. Differently from the standard approach, our asset pricing tests do not rely on the use of ex post average equity returns as proxies for expected equity returns. We Þnd that: (i) the market beta play...

This paper examines, for the Brazilian case, if break-even inflation rates (BEIR) extracted from fixed income securities is an unbiased estimator of consumer inflation, measured by the CPI. Our estimates suggest that BEIRs are informative about future inflation, especially for the maturity of three months. The main innovation of our work, however, is the method used for estimation, allowing us ...

This article formalizes investor rationality and irrationality, exuberance and apprehension, to consider the implications of belief formation for the fragility of an economy’s financial structure. The model presented generates a financial structure with portfolio linkages that make it susceptible to contagious financial crises, despite the absence of coordination failures. Investors forecast th...

This paper provides clear cut evidence that the slope and curvature factors of the yield curve contain more information about future changes in economic activity than the term spread alone, often used in practice as an indicator of future economic conditions. These two factors constitute independent sources of information about future economic activity, which are o¤set to each other in term spr...

Capital markets perform two distinct functions: provision of capital and facilitation of good governance through information production and monitoring. I argue that the governance function has more impact on the efficiency with which resources are utilized within the firm. Based on industry level data across thirty-eight countries, I present evidence suggesting a positive relation between marke...

Introduction: Ca-Al-rich inclusions (CAIs) consist of high temperature minerals that represent the oldest known solid objects in the solar system. The CAIs are known to have contained the short-lived ra-dionuclide 26 Al, which decays to 26 Mg, and has a half-life of 0.72 Myr. The 26 Al-26 Mg decay system provides a high-resolution relative chronometer for the CAIs [e.g., 1]. However, the chrono...

Capital markets perform two distinct functions: provision of capital and facilitation of good governance through information production and monitoring. I argue that the governance function has more impact on the efficiency with which resources are utilized within the firm. Based on industry level data across thirty-eight countries, I present evidence suggesting a positive relation between marke...

We develop a horizontal R&D growth model that allows us to investigate the different channels through which financial reforms affect investment and patent activity. First, “micro” reform abolishes barriers entry in banking sector produces straightforward result: decrease lending rates stimulates economic growth. Second, “macro” removes restrictions on banks’ reserves credit controls. While this...