نتایج جستجو برای: e32

تعداد نتایج: 864  

Journal: :American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2023

Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slowdown comes entirely from female employment, as women’s employment rates converged toward men’s during the past half-century. But does growth of translate into a for overall rates? We estimate extent to which women “crowd out” men labor market across US states, and find that it is small. Through lens general equilibrium model with...

Journal: :The American Economic Review 2021

We formalize the editorial role of news media in a multisector economy and show that can be an independent source business cycle fluctuations, even when they report accurate information. Public reporting about subset sectoral developments are newsworthy but unrepresentative causes firms across all sectors to hire too much or little labor. construct historical measures US coverage use them calib...

Journal: :American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2023

We provide predictions for DSGE models with incomplete information that are robust across structures. Our approach maps an incomplete-information model into a full-information economy time-varying expectation wedges and provides conditions ensure the rationalizable by some structure. Using our approach, we quantify potential importance of as source business cycle fluctuations in otherwise frict...

Journal: :American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2022

This paper examines the long-run effects of 1980–1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential census data, I estimate difference-in-difference regressions that exploit variation across counties in severity cohorts age at time recession. For individuals 0–10 1979, a 10 percent decrease earnings per capita their county birth reduces four-year college degree attainment by 15 adulthoo...

Journal: :American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2022

Analyzing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, we find that overly optimistic growth expectations for a country induce economic contractions few years later. To isolate the causal effect, take an instrumental variable approach—exploiting randomness in allocation of IMF mission chiefs. We first document chiefs differ their individual degrees forecast optimism, yielding quasi-experimental vari...

پایان نامه :وزارت علوم، تحقیقات و فناوری - دانشگاه الزهراء - دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی 1391

هدف این پژوهش بررسی میزان موفقیت یک مدل رشد نئوکلاسیک در توضیح چرخه های تجاری ایران است بدین منظور ابتدا با استفاده از داده های تحقق یافته فصلی تولید، مصرف، سرمایه گذاری و هزینه های دولت(1389:4-1367:1) شاخص های چرخه های تجاری ایران بدست آمده است، سپس با نتایج شبیه سازی شده مقایسه شد و نشان داد که مدل توانی بالایی در بازتولید سری های زمانی اقتصاد ایران را دارد. در این مدل نشان داده شده که 89/99...

ژورنال: :مجله تحقیقات اقتصادی 2008
حمید ابریشمی محسن مهرآرا حجت ا... غنیمی فر معصومه تقی زاده مریم کشاورزیان

در این مقاله اثرات نامتقارن قیمت نفت بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی برای کشورهای صنعتی واردکنندة نفت شامل آمریکا، ایتالیا، فرانسه و ژاپن طی دورة 2002-1960، مورد بررسی قرار می‎گیرد. نتایج تخمین‎های به‎دست آمده نشان می‎دهد که اثرات افزایش و کاهش قیمت نفت بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای مذکور یکسان نبوده است. در این کشورها ، کاهش قیمت نفت اثری بر رشد gdp آن‎ها نداشته، در صورتی که اثر افزایش قیمت نفت در تمام موار...

2006
Matthias S. Hertweck

This paper modifies the standard Mortensen-Pissarides job matching model in order to explain the cyclical behavior of vacancies and unemployment. The modifications include strategic wage bargaining (Hall and Milgrom, 2006) and convex labor adjustment costs. The results reveal that our model replicates the cyclical behavior of both variables remarkably well. First, we show that strategic wage ba...

2015
Melvyn Coles Adrian Masters

In the context of a standard equilibrium matching framework, this paper considers how a duration-dependent unemployment insurance (UI) system affects the dynamics of unemployment and wages in an economy subject to stochastic job-destruction shocks. It establishes that re-entitlement effects induced by a finite duration UI program generate intertemporal transfers from firms that hire in future b...

2008
A New Link Rajeev Dhawan Karsten Jeske

We study how total factor productivity (TFP), energy prices and the great moderation are linked. First, we estimate a joint stochastic process for the energy price and TFP and establish that until 1982:II, energy prices negatively affected productivity. This spill-over has since disappeared. Second, we show that within the framework of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, the ...

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