We investigate the dynamic general equilibrium effects of introducing a social assistance program to elderly informal sector workers in developing countries. We find that the extension of such “retirement benefits” in environments with lacking private sector risksharing mechanisms results in welfare increases and relatively minor efficiency losses. Our results suggest that welfare gains attribu...

The paper derives the solution to a simple stochastic continuous-time dynamic control problem in which a consumer determines consumption and saving while moving between employment and unemployment according to a Markov process. The results differ from the permanent income hypothesis and some of Hall’s 1978 results based on autoregressive income shocks. ∗ The author is indebted to Michael Jeriso...

In this paper we examine how increases in intertemporal price uncertainty affect the welfare of a consumer. In the preference structure of the consumer the coefficient of relative risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) are parametrically independent. We find that under empirically plausible circumstances, for each given degree of risk aversion an increase in price ...

I study the impact of idiosyncratic risk on savings and employment in a small open economy populated by two-member families. Families incur a fixed cost of participation when both members are employed. Because of market incompleteness and information asymmetries, this cost coupled with labor market frictions can generate multiple equilibria. In particular, there might be one equilibrium with hi...

We examine self-control problems — modeled as time-inconsistent, presentbiased preferences—in a model where a person must do an activity exactly once. We emphasize two distinctions: Do activities involve immediate costs or immediate rewards, and are people sophisticated or naive about future self-control problems? Naive people procrastinate immediate-cost activities and preproperate—do too soon...

The importance of consumer confidence in stimulating economic activity is a disputed issue in macroeconomics. Do changes in confidence represent autonomous fluctuations in optimism, independent of information on economic fundamentals, or are they a reflection of economic news? I study this question by using high-frequency microdata on spending and consumer confidence, and I find that consumer c...

Macroeconomics is in crisis and this creates openings for alternative perspectives. The dominant heterodox traditions, however, have shortcomings that need to be addressed, both to improve our understanding of the real world and to take advantage of the opportunities offered by the irrelevance of most mainstream macro. This paper discusses three examples of areas that need attention: (i) invest...

We estimate an empirical model of consumption disasters using new data on consumption for 24 countries over more than 100 years, and study its implications for asset prices. The model allows for partial recoveries after disasters that unfold over multiple years. We find that roughly half of the drop in consumption due to disasters is subsequently reversed. Our model generates a sizable equity p...

In this paper we use a representative consumer model to analyse the equilibrium relation between the transitory deviations from the common trend among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income, cay, and focus on the implications for both stock returns and housing returns. The evidence based on data for 15 OECD countries shows that when agents expect future stock returns to be higher, the...

This paper shows theoretically and empirically that an aggregate Euler equation relates the real interest rate to the growth rate of per capita consumption and the ratio of private and social security wealth plus asset income to consumption. Using the estimated Euler equation, the paper then calculates the steady-state effects of social security reform. Reforms that reduce the ratio of social s...