Traditional computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have ignored uncertainty ─ even when applied to fields such as environmental modeling that are replete with economic uncertainty. In contrast, many control theory models have focused on the effects of uncertainty. Thus marrying the tradition of CGE and control modeling can result in pricequantity models with explicit dynamics and careful t...

This paper considers issues related to identification, inference, and computation in linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We first provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the local identification of the structural parameters based on the (first and) second order properties of the process. The condition allows for arbitrary relations between the number of obs...

The relation between macroeconomic fundamentals and the cross section of asset returns is studied through the lens of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We provide a full-information Bayesian estimation of the model using seven macroeconomic variables and extract the time series of three fundamental shocks to the economy for the period of 1966Q1-2010Q3: neutral technology (NT...

We take as a starting point the existence of a joint distribution implied by different dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, all of which are potentially misspecified. Our objective is to compare ‘‘true’’ joint distributions with ones generated by given DSGEs. This is accomplished via comparison of the empirical joint distributions (or confidence intervals) of historical and sim...

Modern policy analysis makes extensive use of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. These models differ significantly from earlier generations of large-scale econometric models. I review what I see as major progress in the ability of economists to conduct model-based policy analysis. This progress has come through the evolution in the types of models being used and in a refineme...

We outline in turn criticisms made by econometricians of the methods used in empirical business-cycle research and then criticisms made by business-cycle researchers of some methods used by econometricians. The aim is to clarify and in some cases correct these criticisms. Overall there is no conflict in using rigourous statistical procedures to study modern dynamic stochastic general equilibriu...

An increasing literature has been concerned that the dynamics of the economy keeps switching and that, in particular, it is important to allow time variation in the degree of Calvo stickiness. We investigate this with a Markov-switching Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model and show that there is little gain when allowing for such time variation. As a result we recommend to use a constan...

This Paper describes a procedure for constructing theory restricted prior distributions for BVAR models. The Bayes Factor, which is obtained without any additional computational effort, can be used to assess the plausibility of the restrictions imposed on the VAR parameter vector by competing DSGE models. In other words, it is possible to rank the amount of abstraction implied by each DSGE mode...

Estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models using state space methods implies vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) representations of the observables. Following Lippi and Reichlin’s (1994) analysis of nonfundamentalness, this note highlights the potential dangers of non-uniqueness, both of estimates of deep parameters and of structural innovations. ∗Department of ...

We consider both discrete and continuous time finite state-action stochastic games. In discrete time stochastic games, it is known that a stationary BlackwellNash equilibrium (BNE) exists for a single controller additive reward (SC-AR) stochastic game which is a special case of a general stochastic game. We show that, in general, the additive reward condition is needed for the existence of a BN...