Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macrovariables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but over-estimate the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. Journal of Economic Literature classific...

Bu çalışmada Anadolu manda sütünden üç farklı yöntemle (tatlı krema, ekşi krema ve yoğurttan) tereyağı üretilmiştir. Uygulanan üretim yöntemleri karşılaştırılarak tereyağların bazı kimyasal özellikleri incelenmiştir. Hammadde olarak kullanılan sütünün yağ içeriğinin % 7, toplam kuru madde (yağ dahil) oranının %16.20 randımanının 7-8.5 aralığında olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bütün tereyağlarda orta...

Given a Markovian Brownian martingale Z, we build a process X which is a martingale in its own filtration and satisfies X1 = Z1. We call X a dynamic bridge, because its terminal value Z1 is not known in advance. We compute explicitly its semimartingale decomposition under both its own filtration FX and the filtration FX,Z jointly generated by X and Z. Our construction is heavily based on parabo...

The pervasive intraday periodicity in the return volatility in foreign exchange and equity markets is shown to have a strong impact on the dynamic properties of high frequency returns. Only by taking account of this strong intraday periodicity is it possible to uncover the complex intraday volatility dynamics that exists both within and across different financial markets. The explicit periodic ...

JEL classification codes: C51 Model construction and estimation C62 Existence and stability conditions of equilibrium D84 Expectations Speculations This paper proposes the Potluck Problem as a model for the behavior of independent producers and consumers under standardeconomicassumptions, as a problemof resourceallocation inamulti-agent system inwhich there is no explicit communication among th...

Analytical expectational stability results are obtained for both Euler-equation and infinitehorizon adaptive learning in a simple stochastic growth model. The rational expectations equilibrium is stable under both types of learning, though there are differences in the learning dynamics. JEL Classification: E62, D84, E21, E43.

In this paper, we show the first order validity of the block bootstrap in the context of Kolmogorov type conditional distribution tests when there is dynamic misspecification and parameter estimation error. Our approach differs from the literature to date because we construct a bootstrap statistic that allows for dynamic misspecification under both hypotheses. We consider two test statistics; o...

The dynamic and complex relationship among economic variables has attracted the researchers, policy makers and business people alike. This study is an attempt to test the dynamic relationship among gold price, stock returns, exchange rate and oil price. All these variables have witnessed significant changes over time and hence, it is absolutely necessary to validate the relationship periodicall...

Article history: Received 15 February 2010 Received in revised form 13 February 2013 Accepted 21 February 2013 Available online 19 March 2013 This paper investigates the sources of the dynamic relationship between real exchange rates and stock return differentials in relation to the US market for the developed and emerging Asian markets. We, first, derive the dynamic conditional correlation (DC...