In this paper, we propose new tests for threshold cointegration in the conditional autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model. The indicators in the threshold model are based on either a nonstationary or stationary threshold variable. The proposed tests are appropriate when the conditioning variables are weakly exogenous. The cointegrating vector in this paper is not pre-specified. We adopt a s...

T   he completed MCI includes three main channels of interest rate, exchange rate and credit rate. In developing countries such as Iran, this indicator, which contains a credit channel, could be better used to illustrate the country’s monetary condition. This study has been done to calculate this index for the period of 1978–2012. For this purpose, the function of the total economy demand ...

This paper models the price and income elasticity of retail finance in Australia using aggregate quarterly data and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. We particularly focus on the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) from 2007 onwards on retail finance demand and analyse four submarkets (period analysed in brackets): owneroccupied housing loans (Sep 1985–June 2010), term ...

As awareness of environmental issues increases, the pressures from the public and policy makers have forced original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to consider remanufacturing as the key product design option. In order to make the remanufacturing operations more profitable, forecasting product returns is critical due to the uncertainty in quantity and timing. This paper proposes a predictive mo...

Time series studies have provided strong evidence of an association between increased levels of ambient air pollution and increased hospitalizations, typically at a single lag of 0, 1, or 2 days after an air pollution episode. Two important scientific objectives are to better understand how the risk of hospitalization associated with a given day’s air pollution increase is distributed over mult...

iran is one of the most concentrated areas of afghan migrants and refugees. most afghans dispersed throughout the country mixed with iranian households. the majority of afghan immigrants are typically unskilled and illegal workers. this study aims at investigating the nature of the causal relationship between afghan immigrants and two main labor market indicators, average wages and unemployment...

raisin is the second major export item in iranian agricultural section after pistachio. in this study, effects of exchange rate fluctuations were investigated on quantity and price of exported raisin. therefore, data of 1970 to 2008 were reviewed by time series analysis and estimated by auto-regressive distributed lag model (ardl). results show the absence of a long-term relationship between ex...

BACKGROUND Short-term associations have been demonstrated between air pollution and respiratory mortality including pneumonia. Studies typically estimate exposure based only on place of residence, yet many are in hospital prior to death. This study investigates lag length and tests the hypothesis that the effect of 'black smoke' is greater when restricted to pneumonia deaths in the community - ...