We consider the problem of forecasting future regional climate. Our method is based on blending different members of an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations while accounting for the discrepancies between these simulations, under present day conditions, and observational records for the recent past. To this end, we develop Bayesian space-time models that assess the discrepancies ...

Starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) is an alga that has emerged as an aquatic invasive species of concern in the United States. Where established, starry stonewort can interfere with recreational uses of water bodies and potentially have ecological impacts. Incipient invasion of starry stonewort in Minnesota provides an opportunity to predict future expansion in order to target early detectio...

The extent to which current landscapes deviate from the historical range of natural variability (RNV) is a common means of defining and ranking regional conservation targets. However, climate-induced shifts in forest composition may render obsolete restoration strategies and conservation targets based on historic climate conditions and disturbance regimes. We used a spatially explicit forest ec...

1. Understanding individual and population responses to climate change is emerging as an important challenge. Because many phenotypic traits are sensitive to environmental conditions, directional climate change could significantly alter trait distribution within populations and may generate an evolutionary response. 2. In species with environment-dependent sex determination, climate change may ...

Stratospheric conditions are increasingly being recognized as an important driver of North Atlantic and Eurasian climate variability. Mindful that the observational record is relatively short, and that internal climate variability can be large, we here analyze a new 10-member ensemble of integrations of a stratosphere-resolving, atmospheric general circulation model, forced with the observed ev...

Climate change due to anthropogenic activity will continue to alter the chemistry of the oceans. Future climate scenarios indicate that sub-tropical oceans will become more acidic, and the temperature and salinity will increase relative to current conditions. A large portion of previous work has focused on how future climate scenarios may impact shell-forming organisms and coral reef fish, with...

BACKGROUND Furniture companies can analyze their safety status using quantitative measures. However, the data needed are not always available and the number of accidents is under-reported. Safety climate scales may be an alternative. However, there are no validated Portuguese scales that account for the specific attributes of the furniture sector. OBJECTIVE The current study aims to develop a...

We investigated connections between subtropical Atlantic climate variability, atmospheric conditions in the European Alpine region (45 to 47° N and 5 to 8° E) and the interannual variability of the thermal conditions in the largest body of freshwater in Western Europe (Lake Geneva). The long-term water temperature was related to climate variability by means of a multivariate regression model. R...

When conditions are stressful, reproduction and population growth are reduced, but when favourable, reproduction and population size can boom. Theory suggests climate change is an increasingly stressful environment, predicting extinctions or decreased abundances. However, if favourable conditions align, such as an increase in resources or release from competition and predation, future climate c...