A multi-agent system was developed to simulate strategies of natural resources management in the remarkable site of the Causse Méjan, a limestone plateau dominated by a rare pseudo-steppe endangered by pine encroachment. To stimulate the emergence of alternative long-term management strategies of the sheep farms and of the woodlands, contrasting dynamic viewpoints on land resources were designe...

Article history: Scenarios are best described as a highly innovative, pragmatic field of practice grappling with Received 19 December 2011 theoretical grounding. Complexity science, in contrast, is a theoretically grounded, highly Received in revised form 28 September 2012 conceptual field searching for more effective and extensive application in practice. This paper Accepted 1 October 2012 exp...

Background The first outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was successfully restrained in many countries around the world by means of a severe lockdown. Now, we are entering the second phase of the pandemics in which the spread of the virus needs to be contained within the limits that national health systems can cope with. This second phase of the epidemics is expected to last until a...

The Institute of Hydrophysics of GKSS Research Center is developing the tools and expertise required for both past reconstructions and future predictions of substance fluxes on a regional scale and over a period of several decades, and to evaluate their impacts to society. The goal is to build our capacity to compare between scenarios, be it scenarios of substance-emission regulations, economic...

Minimizing VaR, as estimated from a set of scenarios, is a difficult integer programming problem. Solving the problem to optimality may demand using only a small number of scenarios, which leads to poor out-ofsample performance. A simple alternative is to minimize CVaR for several different quantile levels and then to select the optimized portfolio with the best out-of-sample VaR. We show that ...

We propose a dialectical argumentation formalism for qualitative reasoning under uncertainty in a context of alternative scenarios. Our formalism extends prior work representing knowledge uncertainty using dialectical argumentation in participant interaction spaces called Agoras. We define the notion of a scenario in this framework and consider its formal properties. In particular, we ask when ...

the first step in policy making is describing the objectives and choosing the policy instruments and management strategies and then, analyzing and assessing the impacts of them. in this study, farmers’ responses to selected policy instruments and management strategies were assessed using a semi-distributed planning model in qazvin irrigation and drainage network. the proposed model, simulates t...