We examine the impact of the coal boom of the 1970's and the coal bust of the 1980's on disability program participation. These shocks provide clear evidence that as the value of labor-market participation increases, disability program participation falls. For the Disability Insurance program, the elasticity of payments with respect to local earnings is between -0.3 and -0.4 and for Supplementa...

Usually housing is viewed in the context of consumption resulting from other economic drivers such as income and employment. Here, we study how two key local economic measures, the gross metropolitan product (GMP) and unemployment rate, respond to shocks in home value appreciation, home sales, and new construction, respectively. Our analysis relies upon a large panel of 158 metropolitan statist...

We exploit annual variation in influential foreign interest rates to identify externally-driven components of short-run income shocks in small open economies from 1971-2004 and explore the statistical nature of the income-civil conflict nexus. Our results show that movements in foreign interest rates have important effects on civil conflict risk through domestic economic channels. More importan...

This paper examines how job displacement and physical disability suffered by a spouse affects the probability that the person’s marriage ends in divorce. According to the standard economic model of marriage, the arrival of new information about a partner’s earning capacity that an earnings shock conveys might affect the gains that the couple believes it will receive from remaining married. Shoc...

Uncertainty shocks cause economic activity to contract and more so, if monetary policy is constrained by an effective lower bound on interest rates. In this paper, we investigate whether countries with a currency peg or countries within currency unions are also particularly prone to suffer from the adverse effects of heightened uncertainty because they lack monetary independence. First, we esti...

This study is an attempt to examine the effects of external shocks on macroeconomic variables in selective small open emerging economies in Southeast Asia. A quarterly Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, including 33 countries, was used throughout 1979–2013. The empirical results showed that the target countries were affected by external shocks, especially the shocks in the U.S, Euro are...

In this paper, we present the macro stress test with a credit risk approach for banking system of Iran during the period 2004Q1-2019Q4. The goal is to evaluate the vulnerability of the banking system through credit risk to the country economic shocks. In this regard, the developed method of Wilson (1997) Credit Portfolio View model including macroeconomic variables and default rate has been use...

Oil price shocks are the major source of economic instability in oil exporting developing countries, including Iran. In this paper a Multi Sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, with emphasis on optimization of oil sector as a producing sector is designed. Furthermore, an optimizing import sector is introduced into the model by considering the price rigidity in imported goods as a...

iranian banks can not freely determine their interest rates in the financial market. this characteristic causes banking industry unable to perform their duties of financial intermediaries in the transmission mechanism of monetary. in these circumstances, monetary shocks will have a significant and high effect on the alternative markets (like stocks and housing). in this study, we used dynamic s...