In this paper we examine whether past returns of the market portfolio (MKT), the size portfolio (SMB), the book-to-market portfolio (HML) and the idiosyncratic volatility portfolio (HIMLI) can predict growth rates of ten major Australian economic indicators from 1993 to 2010. We find that all four factors can be used to predict growth rates in Australian economic indicators. We also find high r...

This paper solves a realistically calibrated life-cycle model of consumption and portfolio choice with uninsurable labor income risk and borrowing constraints. Since labor income substitutes for riskless asset holdings the optimal share invested in equities is roughly decreasing over life. We compute a measure of the importance of non-tradable human capital for investment behavior to find that ...

In a financial market with a continuous price process and proportional transaction costs we investigate the problem of utility maximization of terminal wealth. We give sufficient conditions for the existence of a shadow price process, i.e. a least favorable frictionless market leading to the same optimal strategy and utility as in the original market under transaction costs. The crucial ingredi...

I simulate a life-cycle model with preferences described by a utility function à la Gul and Pesendorfer (2001). I show that temptation to consume contributes to explain the saving, retirement consumption, and asset allocation puzzles. I perform two analyses, excluding or including Social Security protection, separately for the US and Italy. The pension replacement rate is endogenous in the mode...

This paper analyses the portfolio problem of an investor maximizing the expected exponential utility of his terminal real wealth. The investor must cope with both a set of stochastic investment opportunities and a set of background risks. If the market is complete we are able to find an exact solution. If the market is incomplete, we suggest an approximated general solution. Contrary to other e...

In the cross-section of households, the portfolio share rises in wealth and has a non-decreasing age profile. The standard life-cycle model with homothetic utility and non-tradable labor income has the counterfactual implication that the portfolio share falls in both wealth and age. We develop a life-cycle model in which households have nonhomothetic utility over two types of consumption goods,...

Forward-looking agents care about expected future utility flows, and hence have higher current felicity if they are optimistic. This paper studies utility-based biases in beliefs by supposing that beliefs maximize average felicity, optimally balancing this benefit of optimism against the costs of worse decision making. A small optimistic bias in beliefs typically leads to first-order gains in a...

This paper examines the conditions required to guarantee positive prices in the CAPM. Positive prices imply an upper bound on the equity premium. This upper bound depends on the degree of diversity of firms’ fundamentals, and it is independent of investors’ preferences. In economies with realistically diverse assets the only positive-price CAPM equilibrium theoretically possible is a degenerate...

Using a variety of different definitions of “neutrality,” this study presents significant evidence against the neutrality to market risk of hedge funds in a range of style categories. I generalize standard definitions of “market neutrality,” and propose five different neutrality concepts. I suggest statistical tests for each neutrality concept, and apply these tests to a database of monthly ret...

Recent work on intertemporal choice has varied the specification of every key aspect of modeling except the opportunity cost of consumption. We present evidence that consumers have present-biased perceptions of this parameter: they tend to underestimate the cost of short-term borrowing and the return to long-term saving. We develop a new theory that fits this evidence and is based on a more gen...