The potential for spatial dependence in models of voter turnout, although plausible from a theoretical perspective, has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Using recent advances in Bayesian computation, we formulate and estimate the spatial Durbin error model and apply this model to the question of whether spillovers and unobserved spatial dependence in voter turnout matters from a...

There has been much research in economics concerned with the factors affecting voter turnout. This research has so far ignored how the presence of children affects an individual’s propensity to vote. This paper shows that having young children decreases the likelihood of voting. Low income individuals are especially vulnerable to this increased cost of voting due to children, while higher incom...

Negative ads dominate campaign communication, but scholars continue to disagree over the effects of negativity on voter turnout. While some studies show that negativity leads to a lower likelihood of turnout, others find precisely the opposite. In this article, I leverage the role of timing to unify findings that were heretofore perceived as largely conflicting. I use the same data to show that...

We construct a decision-theoretic model of turnout, in which individuals maximize their subjective expected utility in a context of repeated elections. In the model a nonnegative signaling motivation to vote exists for all citizens, regardless of their ideology or beliefs about the closeness of the election, and is proportional to a citizen's external efficacy, patience, and electoral pessimism...

How, and under what conditions, does electoral violence influence voter turnout? Existing research often presumes that demobilizes voters, but we lack knowledge of the conditions which depresses turnout. This study takes a subnational approach to probe moderating effect local incumbent strength on association between Based existing work, I argue can reduce turnout by heightening threat percepti...

Recently, scholars from law and political science have introduced metrics which use only election outcomes (and not district geometry) to assess the presence of partisan gerrymandering. The most high-profile example of such a tool is the efficiency gap. Some scholars have suggested that such tools should be sensitive enough to alert us when two election outcomes have the same percentage of vote...

Abstract Turnout system is very important in the safety of railway system. However, traditional maintenance method turnouts mainly based on human experience and basic intelligent model. Aiming at problems existing current fault diagnosis turnout equipment, this paper uses improved group decision-making to dynamically iteratively adjust optimize authority each expert method, so as improve predic...

Using the 2012–2018 California State Assembly races, Sadhwani finds that Asian Americans who live in places are 15–30% have higher voter turnout. Turnout these districts is also increased when an candidate on ballot (2020). Although turnout American ballot, it unknown whether or not voters a preference for candidates of same race national-origin. There limited research how use racial and nation...

measuring sensitivity of hydraulic structures is considered as an approach for evaluation of water projects performance, due to lower distribution efficiency in irrigation and drainage project schemes. sensitivity analysis approach for irrigation structures is one of flow analysis methods which are developed in recent years in order to measure the behavior of flow in hydraulic structures in an ...

The concept of costs is familiar one in the voter turnout literature. A large literature is devoted to understanding how voter registration costs can increase or decrease turnout. Much less extant work has focused on the role of information costs in voting. We use redistricting as a method for isolating the role of information costs in the decision to turnout. Redistricting allows us to hold di...