[1] The thermodynamic theory for the physics of a mature tropical cyclone (TC) tells us that the cyclone’s intensity cannot exceed an upper bound, the potential intensity (PI). This combined with an empirical result due to Emanuel leads to a prediction of average TC intensity change, given the change in PI. The slope of the predicted relationship between percentagewise variations in PI and thos...

I have four long-term goals. My first goal is to finalize the large body of work already carried out by the PI on the predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) forecast tracks out to 72 hours ahead. My second goal is to apply similar, as well as new, ideas to the predictability of forecast intensity out to 72 hours ahead. My third goal is to carry out observing system simulation experiments (OSSE...

event unfolded off the west coast of Mexico. At first, the event seemed like a typical east Pacific tropical cyclone (TC), with operational forecasts of it becoming a minimal hurricane at best. What actual ly transpired would rewrite the record books for TCs. Hurricane Patricia became a historic storm, breaking several records, including those related to rate of intensity change and peak intens...

sensitivity of upper thermocline properties to tropical cyclone winds and possible feedbacks on the Hadley circulation" (2010). [1] The sensitivity of upper thermocline properties, and global climate, to tropical cyclone (TC) winds is examined using global ocean and atmosphere general circulation models. We combine seven years of global, satellite‐based TC wind records with a standard surface w...

Tropical cyclones are relatively rare weather events, yet they consistently rank among the world’s deadliest and costliest natural hazards. In the United States, tropical cyclones account for nearly $10 billion annually in economic damages (1), and damages from Hurricane Sandy (2012) are estimated to be over $50 billion. Understanding the role of these events within Earth’s climate system is of...

In the summer following a strong El Niño, tropical cyclone (TC) number decreases over the Northwest (NW) Pacific despite little change in local sea surface temperature. The authors’ analysis suggests El Niño– induced tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming as the cause. The TIO warming forces a warm tropospheric Kelvin wave that propagates into the western Pacific. Inducing surface divergence off t...

1 The CMOD4 model 1.1: The scatterometer................................................................1 1.2: The CMOD4 model..............................................................4 2 The tropical cyclone.................................................................19 3 Experiments 3.1: Premise............................................................................23 3.2: Theoret...

Extratropical transition brings about a number of environmentally induced structural changes within a transitioning tropical cyclone. Of particular interest among these changes is the acceleration of the wind field away from the cyclone’s center of circulation along with the outward movement of the radial wind maximum, together termed wind field expansion. Previous informal hypotheses aimed at ...

Gonu, the second tropical cyclone of the 2007 northern Indian ocean cyclone season, affected Oman, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates and the Islamic Republic of Iran. This report examines the effects of cyclone Gonu in the Islamic Republic of Iran where it approached on its path on 6 June 2007 and reviews the actions taken before, during and after the cyclone. The incident highlighted the need...