The bayesTFR package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. In the model, a random walk with drift is used to project the TFR during the fertility transition, using a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the parameters of the drift term. The TFR is modeled with a first order autoregressive process during the...

Northern Ireland has been and continues to be deeply divided on the basis of religion. This paper examines and compares contemporary fertility in the two communities given the sharp declines that have occurred in recent decades. The data are drawn from the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study and cover 108,000 women aged 16-44 in the period 1997-2007. A logit analysis of births in the period is ...

OBJECTIVE To measure the parental attitudes toward fertility preservation in boys with cancer. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Questionnaire survey via regular mail. PATIENT(S) A total of 465 families whose sons were already treated for cancer. INTERVENTION(S) The questionnaire was designed for two groups based on child's age at the time of cancer diagnosis: <12 and ≥12 years...

OBJECTIVE Fertility sparing surgery (FSS) is a strategy often considered in young patients with early epithelial ovarian cancer. We investigated the role and the outcomes of FSS in eEOC patients who underwent comprehensive surgery. METHODS From January 2003 to January 2011, 24 patients underwent fertility sparing surgery. Eighteen were one-to-one matched and balanced for stage, histologic typ...

Wartime fertility decline and post-war rebound in fertility have been found in both Western societies after the World Wars as well as in war-affected areas in developing countries. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) seems to deviate from this pattern, maintaining a high total fertility rate despite the Congolese wars of 1996-2003 and lingering conflict in East DRC. This study explores the r...

I compare the predictions of three variants of the altruistic parent model of Barro and Becker for the relationship between child mortality and fertility. In the baseline model fertility choice is continuous, and there is no uncertainty over the number of surviving children. The baseline model is contrasted to an extension with discrete fertility choice and stochastic mortality and a setup with...

Fertility decline is still a puzzle. A recent body of work has suggested that changes in kin networks may help explain changing reproductive behaviour. As countries modernise, kin networks break down and association with non-relatives becomes more common. This reduces both the practical support available to mothers in raising children, and affects reproductive norms. This paper presents the res...

This paper examines the past and prospective demographic transition in Nepal. Sparse data from the pre-1961 censuses suggest that mortality decline began during 1930s and allow rough estimates of fertility and mortality levels prior to 1961. Fertility decline began sometime between 1961 and early 1980s, with the total fertility rate declining from about 6 to 5 children per woman by early 1990s....

BACKGROUND Persistent high fertility is associated with mother and child mortality. While most regions in the world have experienced declines in fertility rates, there are conflicting views as to whether Uganda has entered a period of fertility transition. There are limited data available that explicitly detail the fertility trends and patterns in Uganda over the last four decades, from 1973 to...